What is an ETF or ETN?

Guide to 

Exchange Traded Funds and Notes

 versus Mutual Funds

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An exchange traded fund (ETF) is a communal vehicle for investment, as is an exchange traded note (ETN). This primer profiles the duo of instruments and compares them to mutual funds. The relative merits of the securities are explained, along with the grave risks both blatant and subtle. The serious investor has to juggle the crucial factors in order to thrash out a robust program of investment.

The ebook is available in multiple formats including Amazon Kindle. Another example is PDF at the Internet Archive; but here you should shun conversions such as EPUB which were produced automatically by the archiving system and features poor formatting.  ;-)

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Asset Classes for Investment

 

Concrete and Virtual Goods 

for Investing in 

Real and Financial Markets

The asset classes for investment include stocks and bonds, commodities and realty. The best picks depend on personal factors like financial status and risk tolerance.

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Gold ETF Forecast for the Springtime of the 21st Century

 

Cycles of Boom and Bust

for the Commodity and

Top Exchange Traded Funds

A forecast of the top exchange traded fund (ETF) for the gold market sets the stage for an orderly approach to investing in precious metals. In drumming up an agenda, the main vehicles for investment fall into two broad classes: the commodity itself versus the producers within the mining industry. Naturally, each mode of transport comes with its own combo of strengths and drawbacks.

In order to sketch out the prospects downstream, the deft investor looks first in the opposite direction. On one hand, the conditions of the past will never be fully duplicated in the future. Even so, the crucial features of the market are sure to crop up again and again as time goes by.

As in other parts of the economy at large, a watershed in the gold market popped up with the financial crisis of 2008 along with the Great Recession. The severe conditions of the debacle, followed by the fitful recovery of the markets in its aftermath, laid bare the raw fibers of the financial forum and the real economy.

Looking to the future, the demand for gold is slated to burgeon until at least the second half of the 21st century. The lusty trend is the prime mover behind the yellow metal over the long haul. On the other hand, the market is sure to be battered along the way by an endless hail of upthrows and downcasts.

From a larger stance, the buildup of the global economy fuels a groundswell of demand for gold. The uplift is of course a godsend for the producers of the commodity. If prices are rising, then profits should increase for the industry as a whole over the short term as well as the medium range. Over the long run, however, the inrush of newcomers in a budding field – along with the rigors of competition – can lead to the squelch of earnings for the entire cast both old and new. The cruddy outcome is an example of the distinction between the fortunes of the commodity and its producers.

These and other factors play a vital role in sizing up the prospects for the gold market. As a first step in sorting out the muddle, a primal task is to examine the behavior of the marketplace during the tumultuous period that straddled the financial crisis and its aftermath. A second thrust lies in the difference between the movements of the raw commodity versus the antics of the mining stocks. A third function is to map out the key features of the gold market over the years and decades to come.

Since the turn of the millennium, the golden metal has enjoyed a prolonged upswell in spite of the occasional setback. A case in point was the ascent that started in early 2010 and lasted until it faltered in the latter part of the following year. 

For the bulk of investors, the main vehicle for tracking the commodity lies in an exchange traded fund sporting the ticker symbol of GLD. Looking downrange, the next milestone for the index fund stands at its previous peak of some $185 per ounce. As things stand, the latter landmark will be reached in 2013. This objective lies $35 above the current support at the $150 level. In fractional terms, the increase amounts to a gain of some 23% in short order.

After regaining its previous summit, GLD will take a breather before pushing ahead once more. On current trends, the vehicle should reach a sizable barrier at the $185 mark by the following winter. 

Shortly afterward, the commodity itself will touch a price of $2,000 per ounce in the commercial market. The big round number will then kindle a gale of excitement from the mass media and the investing public.

To add to the bluster, a ragtag conga of talking heads will sashay out of the woodwork. The self-proclaimed swamis will declare that the prospects for the metal are not only bounteous but simply boundless.

The outburst of hype will drive the metal higher in the futures market that serves as the touchstone for commercial transactions in gold bullion. In that case, the tracking fund in the stock market will of course follow suit. In the dash to the upside, the next hurdle for the ETF is a price level of $195 per share.

After hitting that target, the stock will fall back toward the $185 zone. Shortly afterward, the ETF should regain its vigor and zoom past $195 within a matter of months.

The next milepost is a hefty barrier at the $220 level. The latter objective lies another $35 past the first milestone at $185. In relative terms, the advance comes out to a hike of a tad under 19%.

After reaching that outpost, GLD will stagger back toward the previous hurdle at $195. Before long, though, the rig will muster enough energy to push ahead once more. All that will take us through 2014 and into the middle of this decade.

By contrast to the raw commodity, the turnout for the mining firms depends more on the hoopla amongst the punters on the bourse than the outlook for either the yellow metal or the stock market at large. When GLD pushes past its prior peak, however, the investing public will once again chase after mining stocks.

In due course, the value of the metal in the commercial market will break through the psychic barrier at $2,000 per ounce. The resulting spate of breathless reports from the mass media will then rouse the general public into a frenzy.

Soon thereafter, the index funds for the mining firms will pare back their losses to date and shoot past their previous peaks. The surge of the mining stocks will draw in a deluge of cash from all quarters, including myriads of plungers who had never before heard about GLD, let alone the index funds for the mining firms.

And so a bubble will duly form as the madding crowd rushes into the arena for a piece of the action. At this stage, however, the savvy players in the ring will begin a gradual process of withdrawal from the futures market for gold bullion as well the index funds for the mining firms.

As the bonfire in the bazaar begins to sputter, a growing cohort of antsy players will wonder whether the uptrend in gold has run its course. And soon enough, the specter of a smashup will turn into a reality.

The ensuing crash of the market will of course deal a body blow to the mass of latecomers to the game. The first big punchout is likely to occur around 2015 or so.

Even so, the fiasco will not mark the end of the boom in gold by a long shot. After wallowing in a funk for a couple of years, the commodity will be ready to stage a bigger comeback.

As the market tramps upward and pushes past one milepost after another, millions of newcomers will jump on the bandwagon. In a fit of delirium, the gamesters in the ring will drive the metal to batty levels rivaled only by the lunacy of the Internet fever during the 1990s.

Swept aloft by the uproar, the sizzling metal will not only reach fat round numbers like $5,000 per ounce but zip right past them. There’s a good chance that figures of this magnitude will spring up by the second half of the 2010s.

Moreover the beefy prices will comprise mere waystations on a multistage journey to the $10,000 level. The latter target is likely to be reached around the 2020s.

By contrast to the raw commodity, the index funds for the mining firms depend largely on the mood of the investing public rather than the action in the commercial market. In the throes of a feeding frenzy, the equities of the major producers could vault by tenfold or more within a matter of years. Meanwhile the index fund for junior miners is apt to explode in excess of a hundredfold beyond its initial peak. 

Such is the wild ride that awaits investors of all stripes in the arena. In these ways, the antics of the gold market in the decades ahead will eclipse the tidal waves of boom and bust in all previous eras.


Read more on Gold ETF Forecast for the Springtime of the 21st Century.

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Market Forecasting

Prediction of the
Financial Forum and Real Economy

Forecasting paves the way for a wholesome program of investment, whether in the financial markets or the real economy. To this end, the techniques of prediction run the gamut from the simple and casual to the complex and formal.

On the scale of rigor, the low end of the range includes a hunch by an investor that a newborn technology will create a vibrant market and render obsolete a mature industry. Meanwhile the opposite end of the spectrum is showcased by a software agent that predicts the price of a stock and learns from its mistakes in order to improve its performance over time.

An investor who wants to divine a market of any sort faces a daunting task. The stumbling blocks include the whims of human actors and the flukes of natural forces. A case in point is a ramp-up of the stock market to ditsy heights by a horde of berserk traders. Another sample involves the smackdown of a regional economy by a monstrous earthquake that knocks out a swath of manufacturing plants and power grids.

In a world racked by chance and chaos, the hapless investor is hard-pressed to peer into the future with any measure of confidence. Even so, the lack of clarity does not mean that anything goes. On the contrary, anyone with a smidgen of sense knows that some things are more likely to crop up than others.

In that case, a glimpse of the future is a matter of degree rather than category. For this reason, the meaningful question is not whether prediction is feasible, but to what extent the task can be achieved.

In a way, the forecaster encounters the same type of challenge in selecting a technique for prediction. More precisely, the apt approach happens to be relative rather than absolute. The best choice of method depends on a bunch of factors including the skills of the user and the thrust of the application.

To begin with, each approach has its strengths and drawbacks. Moreover a given method may work like a charm in the hands of one user but not another. For these and other reasons, the shrewd player weighs a variety of techniques before deciding on the right tool for the job in forecasting a market of any sort.

Read more on Market Forecasting.

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How to Invest in Gold ETFs

 

Top Exchange Traded Funds

for the

Commodity and Its Producers

 

 

A handy way to invest in gold is to take up communal vehicles known as exchange traded funds (ETFs). The mission of the funds is to track the market for gold via direct or indirect means. In the upfront approach, a communal pool holds a stockpile of gold bullion. For the oblique mode, the custom is to hold the stocks of companies engaged in the mining industry by way of exploration, extraction or other functions.

This article examines the top 3 exchange traded funds for the gold market. The first pool takes the direct approach by amassing a trove of the raw commodity. Meanwhile the other two vehicles rely on the indirect tack by holding stakes in the equities of the leading firms in the field.

 

Read more on How to Invest in Gold ETFs.

 

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How to Grow and Prosper

 

Basic Laws of Personal Productivity,

Competitive Strategy and Public Policy

A universal set of guidelines can serve as the groundwork for progress and prosperity in any domain. For this purpose, the basic laws of growth deal with the selection of hearty goals along with their pursuit with rigor and dispatch.

The principles apply to the panoply of human enterprise, ranging from personal affairs and corporate strategies to government policies and international programs.


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Growth and prosperity are hallmarks of the modern culture. The folks bent on forging ahead run the gamut from the workman and entrepreneur to the executive and politician.

For all the yearnings of progress, however, it’s hard to find anyone who goes about the business of advancement in a coherent way. Instead, the usual shtick suffers from a welter of lapses and missteps that trip up the decision maker. As a result, the mass of effort brought to bear on the task is haphazard and disjointed, or even worthless and downright counterproductive.

On the bright side, though, a universal set of maxims can serve as the foundation for a lucid course of action in any domain. In this light, the Code of Growth is applicable to the panoply of human endeavor, ranging from personal affairs and corporate campaigns to economic policies and multinational programs. From a different angle, the functions in hand run the gamut from creative work and vaulting innovation to financial regulation and international trade.

In a nutshell, the purpose of this primer is to explain how the basic laws of growth can be applied to the totality of innovation and enterprise in a world of constrained resources. The general guidelines are relevant to progressive projects in any domain, ranging from personal advancement and corporate strategy to public policy and global growth.


Note: This report is available from major distributors and retailers of electronic books. A notable example lies in Smashwords or Amazon.

The ebook is offered in a variety of formats ranging from PDF and HTML to EPUB and MOBI. For instance, clicking the image above will bring up detailed information on the version for Amazon Kindle.


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Market Outlook for the Early 2010s

Forecast of the Stock Market and Global Economy

A systematic approach to investing requires a prediction of the stock market and the global economy, whether the call happens to be a precise forecast or a rough guesstimate. As a backdrop for picturing the markets downrange, the main event of 2011 was the breakdown of the equity market along with the turmoil in neighboring fields such as commodities and currencies.

One reason for the hullabaloo stemmed from the fitful progress of the economy in developed countries like the U.S., Britain and Japan. Another factor stemmed from the tizzy over the debt crisis in southern Europe, along with widespread fears of a breakup of the euro and collapse of the economy across the continent. These worries brought up the specter of a world plunging into a full-blown recession.

Despite the current jitters in the marketplace, however, the global economy is slated to expand by more than 3% in 2012. Meanwhile the corresponding figure for the U.S. is about 2% even as Europe ekes out a paltry gain.

On the financial front, the stock markets of the mature economies are likely to expand by roughly 16% before the year is out. Better yet, the bourses in the emerging countries should surge by 30% or so.

On a different note, the smackdown of the stock market last year cropped up in sync with the long-range schedule of crashes. As a result, the sequence of blowouts appears to be on track in spite of the muddled breakdown – rather than a clear-cut collapse – after the bourse touched a peak in 2007. As things stand, the next crash of the stock market is likely to occur around 2017 in tune with the running tempo of bombshells since the previous century.

Read the full contents of the electronic book here: Market Outlook for the Early 2010s.

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Market Myths

Fairy Tales Mislead Investors of All Types

The world of investment is a hothouse of myths that belie the reality of the financial markets as well as the real economy. The billow of fairy tales pervades the entire
landscape, ranging from stocks and futures to commodities and currencies.

The bluster of fiction serves to fuddle and stymie investors of all breeds. The players in a bind include newcomers dabbling in the market in their spare time as well as veterans bent on trading the whole day long.

The worst of the folklore can be traced to a pile of voodoo spawned by the high priests of financial economics. The tall tales spun by the hoary clergy run the gamut from the
mystique of random walks to the impossibility of superior returns.

Not surprisingly, the heap of bunk confuses rather than enlightens the luckless investors. In fact, a host of shibboleths do not merely distort the reality but contradict the facts entirely. The hail of obfuscation feeds a quagmire that’s in many ways more slippery and treacherous than most people suspect.

On the upside, though, the financial forum is not as fickle or mystic as it appears to lots of folks, be they wild-eyed tyros or jaded pros. To approach the field in a cogent way, the earnest player can take concrete steps to sort out the wheat from the chaff, the signal from the noise. In thrashing out a sound trail through the thicket of hokum, the first task of the investor is to thresh out the solid facts from the mushy yarns piled high and wide throughout the landscape.

Read more on Market Myths.

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Cruddy Information on Exchange Traded Funds

 Guide to Choosing Exchange Traded Funds 

 in Spite of Shifty Information 

The modern investor faces a raft of challenges due to the confounding nature of the information available on exchange traded funds (ETFs). One of the stumpers stems from the profusion of new-fangled vehicles for investing in a particular market. Another hurdle lies in the occasional outcrop of blighted information which may be incorrect, outdated, and/or misleading.

In the age of the Internet, one of the most popular resources for the investing public lies in the online portal maintained by Yahoo Finance. Another fount of information for the financial community is a rating agency named Morningstar, which has served for decades as a beacon on communal pools such as index funds.

Sadly, though, the stalwarts of this breed are known to serve up faulty data at times. To begin with, the information provided by two different sources may be incompatible with each other. Worse yet, the figures displayed at a single Web site are at times internally inconsistent.

For these reasons, the astute investor is obliged to mull over the data obtained before making any crucial decision. Due to the pitfalls in store, a sensible course of action is to compare a batch of figures against each other in order to assess their consistency.

Another safeguard is to give preference to elementary items of data over derived statistics. Starting from basic nubs of information, the target figures can at times be calculated manually with relative ease.

An example in this vein is to figure out the average return on investment for a particular security based on the initial and final values of the price record. Another ploy is to check a selection of numerical data against a graphic display in order to confirm that the figures appear to be compatible.

The knotty issues of this sort can be explored in depth by way of a case study involving the energy sector. The application deals with the selection of exchange traded funds focused on the market for crude oil. The standard bearer for each type of vehicle is presented, along with a review of its performance in recent years.

From a larger stance, the goal of the exercise is to uncover the problems posed by confounding data. A related task is to present a muster of guidelines for dealing with the stumbling blocks.

Read more on Cruddy Information on Exchange Traded Funds.

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How Forex Affects an ETF for Global Investment

 Showcase of Australia and Korea 

In a global marketplace, the return on investment for an exchange traded fund (ETF) depends in part on the behavior of the foreign exchange (forex) market. Whatever the type of asset, the turnout of the currency in a particular country can have a big impact on the payoff for an international investor. It makes no difference whether the investment involves a financial instrument like a stock or bond, or a tangible object such as land or housing.

Many people have the impression that equities and currencies are independent classes of assets. While that may be true in principle, it’s hardly the case in practice.

For this reason, the global investor has to consider the linkages amongst different types of assets. The forces at work are examined in connection with a couple of stark examples involving Australia and Korea. The case studies happen to involve divergent cultures and distinct time scales, but the crucial patterns crop up regardless.

Read more on How Forex Affects an ETF for Global Investment.


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Market Trends

Large-scale Trends for Competitive Strategy and Investment Planning in a Global Market

A raft of market trends play a central role in competitive strategy and investment planning in a global economy. The articles in this collection examine the large-scale forces and their multiplex offshoots in a variety of domains ranging from common stocks and foreign exchange to raw materials and emerging regions. Another core theme involves the practical import of market trends as the groundwork for ironing out a global program of competitive strategy for the enterprise as well as investment planning for the individual.

More on Market Trends.
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Investing

A Guide to Investing in Financial Markets and Real Assets in a Global Economy

To a growing extent, investing is a crucial aspect of everyday life in the modern era. The ranks of investors all over the world have been swelling in absolute numbers as well as relative figures compared to the population at large.

Against this backdrop, the articles in this collection are designed to provide a coherent approach to investing in a global economy. The topics at hand span the spectrum from large-scale trends and short-term patterns in the marketplace as well as hidden threats and promising strategies for the investor. Meanwhile, the types of vehicles for investment planning range from common stocks and foreign exchange to real estate and precious metals.

More on Investing.
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How to Invest in Agriculture: Choosing the Best Investment Funds

A simple way to catch the boom in agriculture is to make use of investment funds. In particular, an exchange traded fund (ETF) is a convenient and cost-effective vehicle for investors.

There are several different kinds of exchange traded funds. Whichever type is chosen, the pools can serve as tools for participating in the groundswell of agriculture.

As with any sector of the economy, the agricultural niche will not expand in a smooth or steady fashion. Rather, the market will advance in fits and starts over the years and decades to come.

On the downside, the majority of participants in the market will rush into the arena toward the tail end late of each upswell. In fact, hordes of wild-eyed punters will leap into the field just as the ferment turns into a frenzy followed by an outright bubble.

Each time the craze comes to an end, myriads of gamesters will find that their airy profits have vanished entirely. Worse yet, many of the latecomers will end up losing the bulk of their original investments as well.

On a positive note, though, a cadre of vanguard investors has been preparing in advance to take advantage of the tsunami that is yet in its prime. The spearheads are also planning to leave the market well before the hubbub builds to a climax followed by a blowout.

The purpose of this article is to set the stage for an orderly foray into the field. In addition to a cogent set of guidelines, a selection of references serves as a springboard to additional sources of information.

More on How to Invest in Agriculture: Choosing the Best Investment Funds.

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Outlook for the Commodity Market

Top Guidelines and Videos for Investment Planning in the Commodity Market

Since the dawn of the millennium, the groundswell of demand for natural resources has turned the commodity market into a cornerstone of investment planning. Moreover, the newfound role is destined to continue to a greater or lesser degree until the middle of the 21st century.

On one hand, the market for natural resources will wax and wane in tune with the long wave of the commodity cycle. On the other hand, the undulation will be superimposed upon a secular trend the likes of which has never been seen before. The ascent of the commodity market over the course of half a century springs in part from the widespread program of industrialization in the emerging nations of the world. A second engine of growth lies in the upgrowth of prosperity around the world, along with the influx of newfound consumers by the billions into the global economy.

This article presents a muster of guidelines for the future of the commodity market, together with a selection of videos showcasing the top minds in the field. Another hallmark is a clutch of tips on investing in natural resources as well as a batch of pointers to additional resources.

More on Outlook for the Commodity Market.

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Future of the Silver Market

Top Guidelines and Insights on the Future of the Silver Market as a Foundation for Investment Planning

The upsurge of silver bodes well for the future of the metal as a keystone for investment planning. The resource is an unusual asset in that it plays a vital role as a precious metal as well as an industrial commodity.

On one hand, investors like to amass silver as a storehouse of wealth in times of inflation in the economy or turmoil in the society. On the other hand, silver also serves as a raw material in products ranging from trophies to microcircuits.

This primer presents a coherent picture of the driving forces and likely movements in the marketplace over the decades to come. The pointers are accompanied by the insights of some of the brightest minds in the financial arena. In addition, a roundup of online content serves as a launching pad for further exploration and evaluation of the silver market.

More on Future of the Silver Market.

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Trends in Gold: Guidelines and Top Videos for Investment Planning

At the dawn of the millennium, the gold market has come to play a dominant role in investment planning. The large-scale trend is slated to continue over the first half of the 21st century.

On the other hand, the path of the gold market will not be smooth or straight. Rather, the metal will behave like other types of assets in the financial forum by following a winding and confounding route.

The financial crisis of 2008, along with the global recession in its wake, shoved the gold mining industry over a cliff. Even so, the companies in the field are regaining their strength thanks to the pickup in demand for natural resources of all kinds as the global recovers its footing.

If history is any guide, the stocks of the large producers of gold - also known in the industry as the majors - will lead the ascent to newfound heights of prosperity. The spearheads will duly be followed by the small fry, otherwise called the minors.

On the whole, the equities of bantam firms will lag those of the heavyweights in the arena. Yet many of the midgets will soar much faster and higher when the time comes for them to flourish.

By the same token, the minors will fall much faster and further each time the upsurge comes to an end. In fact, the majority of the minors - consisting of the current players in the field as well as the hordes yet to be born - will end up going bust.

As a result, legions of heedless investors who plow untold sums of money into the juniors will end up with a drubbing. The bulk of the punters will have little or nothing to show for all their frenzied hustling and wispy dreams of wealth.

More on Trends in Gold: Guidelines and Top Videos for Investment Planning.