Market Timing via Monthly and Holiday Patterns

 

A Free Lunch in the Stock Market 

The stock market displays a medley of patterns that can serve as the crux of a timing strategy. A showcase lies in the oft-seen surge of the market around the turn of the month as well as the run-up to a holiday.

As with all things, the timing strategy does have its shortcomings. An example involves the need to dart in and out of the market more than a dozen times a year in order to take full advantage of the patterns.

Another drawback stems from the higher rate of income tax on short-term profits as opposed to long-run gains in the stock market. The precise impact will of course depend on the specific circumstances such as the trader’s country of residence.

Despite of the hassles, though, trading with the calendar can deliver a higher payoff at less risk than the humdrum policy of buying stocks and holding them indefinitely. For this reason, a timing strategy based on monthly cycles and market holidays represents a free lunch on Wall Street.

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Market Myths

Fairy Tales Mislead Investors of All Types

The world of investment is a hothouse of myths that belie the reality of the financial markets as well as the real economy. The billow of fairy tales pervades the entire
landscape, ranging from stocks and futures to commodities and currencies.

The bluster of fiction serves to fuddle and stymie investors of all breeds. The players in a bind include newcomers dabbling in the market in their spare time as well as veterans bent on trading the whole day long.

The worst of the folklore can be traced to a pile of voodoo spawned by the high priests of financial economics. The tall tales spun by the hoary clergy run the gamut from the
mystique of random walks to the impossibility of superior returns.

Not surprisingly, the heap of bunk confuses rather than enlightens the luckless investors. In fact, a host of shibboleths do not merely distort the reality but contradict the facts entirely. The hail of obfuscation feeds a quagmire that’s in many ways more slippery and treacherous than most people suspect.

On the upside, though, the financial forum is not as fickle or mystic as it appears to lots of folks, be they wild-eyed tyros or jaded pros. To approach the field in a cogent way, the earnest player can take concrete steps to sort out the wheat from the chaff, the signal from the noise. In thrashing out a sound trail through the thicket of hokum, the first task of the investor is to thresh out the solid facts from the mushy yarns piled high and wide throughout the landscape.

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Forecasting the Next Crash of the Stock Market

Timeline for the 2010s

For the wordly investor, the main event of 2011 so far has been the crash of the stock market in the U.S. and elsewhere, along with the bedlam in kindred fields such as commodities and currencies. As is often the case, the mayhem caused by the actors – be they part-time amateurs or full-time professionals – was for the most part a premature and avoidable ordeal for the entire community.

The smashup of the markets was prompted by the specter of a full-blown recession in the global economy in the near future. One reason for the jitters stemmed from the fitful progress of the industrial nations such as the United States, Britain and Japan. Another factor lay in the brouhaha over the debt crisis in Europe, along with widespread fears of a breakup of the euro plus the collapse of the regional economy.

For a number of years, the politicians in the developed world went out of their way to prop up the distortions in the marketplace that emerged during the run-up to the financial crisis of 2008. Instead of prolonging the malady, the politicos should have allowed the economy to heal itself. Better yet, public policy could have helped to undo the damage throughout the entire meshwork of production and distribution. Thanks to the counterproductive moves of the pols, however, the economy was doomed to struggle and flounder.

On a positive note, the crash of the stock market this year popped up in sync with the long-range schedule of meltdowns. As a result, the sequence of bombshells appears to be back on track despite the partial derailing linked to financial crisis of 2008. As things stand, the next crackup of the bourse is likely to occur around 2017 in line with the running sequence of flaps in the modern era.

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