Forecast of the Stock Market and the Global Economy

Outlook for 2011 and Beyond

In contrast to common perception, the stock market and the real economy are intertwined in the present as well as the future – a linkage which can serve as the basis for forecasting. The process is illustrated by way of a timely survey: a forecast of the stock market along with the global economy for 2011 and beyond.

On the whole, the volume of economic output is likely to expand by roughly 4.5% over the year to come. The same is true of the growth rate for much of this decade.

In line with the norm, though, the expansion will be patchy rather than uniform. For instance, mature economies such as the U.S. will grow by a mere couple of percent per year after adjusting for inflation.

Furthermore, about 1% of the increase will stem from the buildup of the population due to the net flow of immigration over emigration.  In that case, the rate of productivity will creep upward by just 1% per year. The same outcome lies in store for the average level of income.

On the other hand, the spearheads in the emerging regions will gallop ahead at a blistering pace. In places such as China and India, the upsurge of economic output is set to reach 9% or more per annum.

Meanwhile, the exporters to the budding countries will fare somewhere in between the two extremes of growth. An example is found in Australia or Canada as exporters of raw materials. Another sample is Germany or Korea as suppliers of capital equipment or finished goods.

In the absence of any big surprises, the markets round the planet are destined to enjoy a refreshing upswing in 2011. Moreover, the outlook for the years to come is a bit less sparkling but still cheery even so.

On the upside, the winds of fortune smile upon the bourses of the world. During the run-up to the Presidential race, the U.S. government will whip up a storm of hubbub in a heated effort to fire up the economy.

For the most part, the hoopla will be a blast of hot air without much impact over the long range. Even so, any dumpage of money into the marketplace by way of fiscal programs or monetary schemes will serve to nudge up the volume of commercial transactions. In that case, the gush of spending is bound to be a tonic for the stock market, at least over the short and medium range.

As a result, the U.S. bourse is slated to surge by 15% or so over the course of 2011. Since the American market is a beacon for the rest of the world, the upswell will bolster other bourses throughout the planet.

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Starting Point for Investment Planning

Adapting to Change in Global Markets

The upgrowth of global markets gives rise to changing opportunities for investment planning. In this dynamic environment, an orderly approach to investing begins with a wholesome view of the big picture.

As it happens, the asset classes and market niches are interlinked rather than independent. For this reason, a grasp of the larger context provides a trusty backdrop for dealing with any portion in particular.


Making Sense of the Turmoil

The purpose of MintKit Investing is to serve as a staging area for investing in growth in a worldwide economy. To this end, the hub examines ground-breaking trends, promising opportunities, and crafty techniques across the panoply of financial markets and tangible assets.

On one hand, the full spectrum of topics covered by the hub is unlikely to interest all comers in a uniform way. Rather, some folks will lean toward certain topics rather than others.

Despite the diversity of concerns, though, a systematic view of the opportunities for growth is a useful foundation for every decision maker. Put another way, the shrewd investor keeps an open mind and considers a broad array of assets for investment.

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Haste Makes Waste in Investing

 Patchy Knowledge of the Markets Can Backfire

A smattering of knowledge can be more harmful than helpful for the investor. An example is a disjointed grasp of cause and effect which provokes moves that are not only feckless but detrimental. In this regard, at least, the field of investing is no different from any other domain.

In many cases, scrappy information paints a false picture of the financial arena as well as the real economy. The faulty impression sets the stage for a universal form of blunder: an overreaction by the antsy investor. A case in point is a punter who flees a foreign market in the wake of a local flap; yet a bombshell which looks menacing to the players living abroad could well be business as usual for the locals.

A second type of gaffe is a misreading of a given event due to an incomplete knowledge of the larger context. For instance, a gripping event which looks like the sign of a turning point might just be another symptom of a chronic condition.

A third form of bungling is a blind reliance on a rough guideline. As an example, the stock market is widely regarded as a harbinger of the economy at large. On the other hand, the bourse has a habit of breaking down for reasons that have nothing to do with the innate condition of the financial forum or the larger economy.

The three types of mistakes may crop up separately or jointly. In the case study presented here, the trio of goofs rocked the stock market and the local currency in Thailand.

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Investing

A Guide to Investing in Financial Markets and Real Assets in a Global Economy

To a growing extent, investing is a crucial aspect of everyday life in the modern era. The ranks of investors all over the world have been swelling in absolute numbers as well as relative figures compared to the population at large.

Against this backdrop, the articles in this collection are designed to provide a coherent approach to investing in a global economy. The topics at hand span the spectrum from large-scale trends and short-term patterns in the marketplace as well as hidden threats and promising strategies for the investor. Meanwhile, the types of vehicles for investment planning range from common stocks and foreign exchange to real estate and precious metals.

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Financial Forecasting in Practice

 Of Human Bondage and Mental Reach in Financial Forecasting

One way or another, financial forecasting is an integral part of investment planning. Whether an outlook happens to be an explicit forecast or a vague impression, the investor has to envision the outcome downrange in order to make an intelligent decision today.

In a global market that grows ever more complex, an entire industry has sprung up to size up the prospects for assets ranging from stocks and bonds to commodities and properties. On the downside, the purveyors of forecasts have a lousy record of foretelling the market. For instance, the gurus as a group make calls that are worse than random guesses on the direction of the stock market. Remarkably, even the top tier of renowned pundits cannot match the performance of a coin toss in predicting the bourse.

On the upside, though, the market displays a variety of patterns which can help the investor in forecasting prices and managing portfolios. Admittedly, the power to predict the market is far from perfect. Even so, a limited ability to anticipate the movement of prices is far better than none at all.

A series of incisive studies by level-headed researchers has shed some light on the chaotic domain of financial markets. The findings provide a better grasp of the forces at work as well as the modes of behavior and the limits to forecasting. To a greater or lesser degree, financial prediction lies within reach for investors with little or no money to spare for oracles, and scarcely any time to devote to the task.

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Regulation of Hedge Funds

Sweeping Changes are Needed if the Regulation of Hedge Funds is to Cure the Ills rather than Mask the Symptoms

The regulation of hedge funds is a vital concern for investors, lawmakers and other stakeholders. The reason for the prominence stems from the growing role of wildcat pools in causing or exacerbating the blowups in the financial forum. The outfits of this breed may take the form of boutique firms calling their own tunes or wildcat groups nestled within larger institutions.

The throng of hedge funds shows a great deal of variety in their trading styles, and market niches. Even so, one common streak is the urge to make a quick profit. As a result, the operators are prone to take on a great deal of risk and often reach beyond the bounds of reason.

Not surprisingly, hedge funds of all stripes go bust in droves whether the economy is surging or slumping. In spite of the breakdowns, however, the true performance of the punters is hidden by the usual statistics of the domain.

Even so, rigorous studies of the field have shown that the investors as a group get a raw deal. To make matters worse, hedge funds in the aggregate pose a serious threat to the economic security of the nation and even the global system of finance and trade. The general public has come to glimpse the enormity of the problem even if the majority happens to be unfamiliar with the details of the hedge fund game.

Until the financial crisis of 2008, the policy of governments around the globe was to stand aloof from the ruckus to the greatest extent possible. To be precise, the standard operating procedure was to wait until a bombshell explodes, then scamper around in order to contain the damage.

Put another way, the policy was to play chicken with the biggest threat in the financial forum. As a result, the upshot has been the recurrent loss of trillions of dollars in assets with each crash in the marketplace.

On a positive note, the financial system as well as the real economy have thus far managed to recover from each debacle within a matter of months or years. In other words, the blowouts battered but did not destroy the global system of finance and trade. Under the current scheme, though, it’s only a matter of time before the whole shebang comes tumbling down.

Given this backdrop, the way forward is clear enough. The only real question is whether there is enough gumption among elected officials to step up to the task and deal with the menace head-on. This article talks about the stumpers at hand and presents a number of wholesome solutions for fixing the problems.

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How to Outpace Most Mutual Funds and Hedge Funds while Earning a Fee

In spite of all their efforts, the majority of players in the stock market – be they mutual funds, hedge funds, or individual investors – are unable to keep up with the market averages. There are generic as well as distinct reasons among the participants for lagging the marketplace.

On the upside, though, there’s a simple way to outshine the mass of punters in the stock market. In fact, the objective is not that formidable or even taxing.

A raft of studies over the decades has shown that mutual funds as a group trail behind the stock market at large. Although the exact numbers vary somewhat from one probe to another, a representative result is that the annual return from mutual funds is on average half percent lower than the benchmarks of the bourse.

One reason for the shortfall is that mutual funds have a habit of charging a maintenance fee based on the total value of the assets under management. In the past, the fee has ranged anywhere up to a couple of percent – or even higher – of the average value of the portfolio over the course of the year.

In a raft of ways, the performance of hedge funds is even worse than that of mutual funds. According to impartial studies, the top tier of hedge funds ekes out a gross profit that is comparable to the average performance of mutual funds.

Even so, the net return to the investors is a lot less for a several reasons. One factor lies in the performance fee, which usually ranges from 20 to 50 percent of the gains whenever the portfolio happens to turn in a profit. Moreover, the investors have to pay a fixed fee – usually a couple of percent of the average value of the portfolio over the course of the years – for administrative expenses regardless of performance.

In spite of the pitfalls, a lot of investors squander their money on investment funds that levy a fixed fee of a couple of percent each year for holding onto their assets. The customers could easily secure better results through cost-effective pools that charge a pittance for their services.

Another curio is that the average investor earns even less than the average mutual fund. The crux of the problem springs from the habit of giving in to alternating bouts of mania and panic.

If you were to keep up with the stock market at large, then you’d be trouncing the average fund managed by the professional managers. It goes without saying that you’ll also trump the mass of individual investors by a comfortable margin.

In fact, you could also pay yourself a management fee of nearly half a percent a year on the total value of your portfolio. In that case, you would of course trail behind the indexes of the stock market by a similar amount. Even so, you could still beat the bulk of your rivals whether in the form of mutual funds, hedge funds, or lone investors.

This article will show you how to achieve this fabulous feat.

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How to Size up Hedge Funds: 4 Common Pitfalls to Avoid

In an attempt to spice up their investment strategy, a lot of people make serious mistakes in sizing up the returns to be had from hedge funds. In fact, the customers as a group end up getting a lot less than they had bargained for.

The dangers of the domain are spotlighted by the fact that hedge funds have a way of going bust in droves. During their short lifespans, the performance of the survivors is nothing to write home about, either. According to rigorous studies of the domain, hedge funds on average turn in gross profits that are only comparable to those of mutual funds. On the other hand, the net returns to the customers of hedge funds trail far behind those of mutual funds.

There are several reasons for the discrepancy between the image and the reality in the marketplace. In this article, we examine the four types of pitfalls that lead investors astray.

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Earn More by Doing Worse: Or, Who’s the Golden Goose of Hedge Funds?

In the popular imagination, hedge funds are exclusive outfits that deliver scads of profit at minimal risk. Sadly, though, the investors as a group have found that the outcome is precisely the opposite of what they had fancied.

In terms of net returns to the customers, even the top tier of hedge funds lag comfortably behind mutual funds; and the latter pools are widely known to underperform the benchmarks of the stock market. To make matters worse, though, hedge funds go out of business in droves whether the market at large happens to be rising or falling.

The custodians of hedge funds take a big chunk of the earnings, usually ranging from 20 to 50 percent of the spoils, during any period in which the portfolio happens to turn in a profit. For this reason, the general public believes that the goals of the stewards are aligned with those of the patrons.

But this outcome is only half of the arrangement. Unfortunately, the bulk of investors pay little or no mind to the flip side of the picture. And the downside is the scary part. When a bet goes sour, the investors take the fall while the plungers that caused the blowup get off without a scratch.

Due to the twisted pattern of payouts, the incentives of the operators are at odds with the objectives of the investors. Moreover, the crummy performance of hedge funds on average indicates that the operators as a group do in fact place their own interests ahead of their patrons’.

The purpose of this article is to lay bare the absurd pattern of payoffs which pits the earnings of the operators against those of the investors. Due to the mismatch, the stewards of wildcat pools take batty risks that bolster their own welfare at the expense of the clients.

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How to Invest in Agriculture: Choosing the Best Investment Funds

A simple way to catch the boom in agriculture is to make use of investment funds. In particular, an exchange traded fund (ETF) is a convenient and cost-effective vehicle for investors.

There are several different kinds of exchange traded funds. Whichever type is chosen, the pools can serve as tools for participating in the groundswell of agriculture.

As with any sector of the economy, the agricultural niche will not expand in a smooth or steady fashion. Rather, the market will advance in fits and starts over the years and decades to come.

On the downside, the majority of participants in the market will rush into the arena toward the tail end late of each upswell. In fact, hordes of wild-eyed punters will leap into the field just as the ferment turns into a frenzy followed by an outright bubble.

Each time the craze comes to an end, myriads of gamesters will find that their airy profits have vanished entirely. Worse yet, many of the latecomers will end up losing the bulk of their original investments as well.

On a positive note, though, a cadre of vanguard investors has been preparing in advance to take advantage of the tsunami that is yet in its prime. The spearheads are also planning to leave the market well before the hubbub builds to a climax followed by a blowout.

The purpose of this article is to set the stage for an orderly foray into the field. In addition to a cogent set of guidelines, a selection of references serves as a springboard to additional sources of information.

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How to Catch the Boom in Gold: A Guide for Investment Planning

The gold market is playing a growing role as a cornerstone of investment planning for individuals as well as organizations. On the upside, the outlook for the yellow metal is dazzling over the long run.

Even so, it seems safe to say that not everyone will benefit to the same degree from the large-scale trends in the global marketplace. On the contrary, the majority of investors will show up late for the party, as they usually do in the financial arena.

Myriads of punters will rush into the field as the gold market sizzles and swells into a bubble. The frenzy will then be duly followed by a blowout that sweeps away the frothy gains racked up during the upsurge.

In addition to wiping out the profits of the latecomers, the bombshell will obliterate the bulk of the funds thrown into the bonfire of speculation. That is the way of all crazes and their busts.

On a positive note, though, a cohort of vanguard investors has been planning in advance to harness the groundswell that is still in its prime. The savvy players at the forefront are also aware of the need to exit the fiesta of gold well before the frenzy builds up to a climax followed by the usual smackdown.

If you plan to weave your way deftly through the din and smoke of the bazaar, then you have to approach the domain in an orderly fashion. In particular, you need to identify the jumbo trends, pinpoint the most promising vehicles, and drum up an investment strategy based on your personal profile of objectives, resources and tastes.

To this end, the primer at hand presents a coherent approach to venturing into the gold market. In addition to a compact set of guidelines, a lineup of references serves as a springboard for further information on the subject.

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Outlook for the Commodity Market

Top Guidelines and Videos for Investment Planning in the Commodity Market

Since the dawn of the millennium, the groundswell of demand for natural resources has turned the commodity market into a cornerstone of investment planning. Moreover, the newfound role is destined to continue to a greater or lesser degree until the middle of the 21st century.

On one hand, the market for natural resources will wax and wane in tune with the long wave of the commodity cycle. On the other hand, the undulation will be superimposed upon a secular trend the likes of which has never been seen before. The ascent of the commodity market over the course of half a century springs in part from the widespread program of industrialization in the emerging nations of the world. A second engine of growth lies in the upgrowth of prosperity around the world, along with the influx of newfound consumers by the billions into the global economy.

This article presents a muster of guidelines for the future of the commodity market, together with a selection of videos showcasing the top minds in the field. Another hallmark is a clutch of tips on investing in natural resources as well as a batch of pointers to additional resources.

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How to Invest in the Silver Market: Guide to Investment Planning

In the years to come, the silver market will play a growing role in investment planning for individuals as well as organizations. If history is any guide, though, myriads of heedless investors will fail to profit from the tidal waves in the global marketplace.

As an example, the majority of players will come late to each groundswell in the silver market. In fact, hordes of wild-eyed plungers will leap into the arena just as the ferment turns into a frenzy followed by an outright bubble.

The mania is sure to be followed by a blowup that wipes out the fleeting profits of the latecomers. Worse yet, the bulk of their original stake is apt to go up in flames as well.

On a positive note, though, a cadre of vanguard investors are preparing in advance for the tsunami that is still in its prime. The players will also plan to exit the carnival of the silver market well before the hullabaloo builds to a climax followed by a blowout.

To this end, the goal of this article is to set the stage for an orderly foray into the field. In addition to a telling set of guidelines, a lineup of references serves as a springboard to additional sources of information.

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Future of the Currency Market

Top 10 Pointers and Videos for Investment Planning in the Currency Market

The currency market plays a basic role in investment planning in any field, whether the project deals with the financial arena or the real economy. As an example, a staid bond can crumple if its underlying currency is bashed by a spate of hyperinflation. In a similar way, an investment in a foreign venture can flounder if the target currency breaks down relative to that of the original funds.

Over the medium range, the vital forces in the marketplace are illustrated by the ascent of upstart currencies on the global stage. Meanwhile, an inevitable process over the long haul is the integration of national currencies into regional scrips. A few decades onward, the hybrid currencies will be duly followed by the emergence of a single brand of legal tender throughout the world.

As the millennium unfolds, the upheavals in the marketplace will be sweeping and momentous. A direct consequence is the crucial role of the currency market on the impact of an investment strategy in any domain.

Against this backdrop, the purpose of this article is to pinpoint the crucial issues and nascent trends in the currency market. The guidelines are accompanied by a series of videos that spotlight the viewpoints of the best minds at work in the realm of foreign exchange in particular and the financial markets in general.

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Future of the Silver Market

Top Guidelines and Insights on the Future of the Silver Market as a Foundation for Investment Planning

The upsurge of silver bodes well for the future of the metal as a keystone for investment planning. The resource is an unusual asset in that it plays a vital role as a precious metal as well as an industrial commodity.

On one hand, investors like to amass silver as a storehouse of wealth in times of inflation in the economy or turmoil in the society. On the other hand, silver also serves as a raw material in products ranging from trophies to microcircuits.

This primer presents a coherent picture of the driving forces and likely movements in the marketplace over the decades to come. The pointers are accompanied by the insights of some of the brightest minds in the financial arena. In addition, a roundup of online content serves as a launching pad for further exploration and evaluation of the silver market.

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How to Invest in Gold: Top 3 Exchange Traded Funds

In recent years, investors around the globe have shown an increasing interest in exchange traded funds as a way to participate in the gold market. A vehicle of this sort is in fact a convenient and cost-efficient way to latch onto the ascent of the golden metal.

There are direct and indirect ways to approach the marketplace. This article talks about the benefits and drawbacks of each tack, along with the top candidate in each category.

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Trends in Oil: Guidelines and Top Videos for Investment Planning

The large-scale trends in the global economy will continue to drive the price of crude oil, along with the consequences for investment planning. On one hand, the upsurge of affluence in the emerging regions of the world – ranging from China and India to Turkey and Brazil – creates a groundswell of demand for fuel in order to drive factories, heat homes, and power cars.

At the opposite end of the pipeline, however, the producers of oil are finding it increasingly difficult to replenish the dwindling deposits. We have entered a phase where a surge in the price of oil no longer draws out a comparable expansion in the volume of production nor the stockpile of reserves.

These outcomes are the first signs of a sea change in the marketplace. On a positive note of sorts, the financial crisis of 2008 bashed the global economy and shoved it into the worst tailspin of a lifetime. The upshot was a respite of the oil market from its inexorable advance to dizzy heights.

On the other hand, we will not encounter a similar trip-up in the marketplace in the absence of another catastrophe in the financial forum or the real economy. For this reason, the demand for energy will only burgeon with the passage of time.

Jagged Path of Oil

Naturally, there will be temporary dips in price on occasion due to a recession or some other upset. Even so, only a catastrophe that crushes the global economy and throws the entire planet back to a pre-industrial era will “save” us from the specter of oil shortages standing in our path.

We have no reason to suppose that such an event will occur in the foreseeable future. And if we did, it would be a boon for the population in their role as consumers of oil; but the blowout would mark the end of modern society. For this reason, we would have to make every attempt to prevent such a calamity, or to recover from the crackup if it were to occur.

As things stand, however, we have enough stumpers on our plate. The challenge of meeting our energy needs is by itself a sword of Damocles hanging over our heads. In fact, there is no way that the current trends can continue into the indefinite future.

On the contrary, we will run into a catastrophe of our own making if we let matters slide as we have been doing for so long. In spite of the specter that threatens life as we know it, the end of the age of oil is not the thrust of this article.

Rather, the primer at hand deals mainly with the outlook for oil as a backdrop for investment planning. Granted, the financial forum at times goes off into extremes of passion in the midst of a bubble or panic, pushing prices to extremes that have scant basis in reality.

The bulk of the time, however, the marketplace does not exist in a vacuum. Rather, the action in the forum is tied, however, tenuously, to the condition of the environment.

For this reason, the canny investor takes a sober look at the external environment as the groundwork for thrashing out a trenchant strategy. To this end, the article at hand is designed to serve as a launching pad for a deft sally into the market for the long haul.

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Trends in Gold: Guidelines and Top Videos for Investment Planning

At the dawn of the millennium, the gold market has come to play a dominant role in investment planning. The large-scale trend is slated to continue over the first half of the 21st century.

On the other hand, the path of the gold market will not be smooth or straight. Rather, the metal will behave like other types of assets in the financial forum by following a winding and confounding route.

The financial crisis of 2008, along with the global recession in its wake, shoved the gold mining industry over a cliff. Even so, the companies in the field are regaining their strength thanks to the pickup in demand for natural resources of all kinds as the global recovers its footing.

If history is any guide, the stocks of the large producers of gold - also known in the industry as the majors - will lead the ascent to newfound heights of prosperity. The spearheads will duly be followed by the small fry, otherwise called the minors.

On the whole, the equities of bantam firms will lag those of the heavyweights in the arena. Yet many of the midgets will soar much faster and higher when the time comes for them to flourish.

By the same token, the minors will fall much faster and further each time the upsurge comes to an end. In fact, the majority of the minors - consisting of the current players in the field as well as the hordes yet to be born - will end up going bust.

As a result, legions of heedless investors who plow untold sums of money into the juniors will end up with a drubbing. The bulk of the punters will have little or nothing to show for all their frenzied hustling and wispy dreams of wealth.

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How to Fathom Global Trends in Real Estate: Top 7 Waves of Prosperity

In spite of all the troubles in the world, the press of globalization is creating a groundswell of prosperity that affects the prospects for investment strategy in real estate. The large-scale trends in technical progress as well as economic growth will continue to have a profound impact on the patterns of life at work and play. One of the consequences is an upsurge in certain types of properties in the commercial sector as well as the residential market.

This article presents a coherent approach to keeping track of the jumbo waves in real estate driven by the upswell of affluence. The trends at hand affect the outlook for investments whether the planner is a private individual or a commercial enterprise. An example of the former is a retiree looking for a vacation home or a participant in a property syndicate. An instance of the latter is an investment fund dealing with real estate or a property developer eyeing a novel project.

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Investment Strategy for the Gold Market

A Guide to Crafting an Investment Strategy for the Gold Market

Over the years to come, the gold market will continue to play a growing role as a cornerstone of investment strategy for individuals and organizations as well as governments around the globe. Yet, it seems safe to say that not everyone will benefit to the same degree from the ascent of the golden metal. This article is addressed to the investor who intends to be part of the leading edge in the marketplace. In particular, the objective is to set the stage for an orderly foray into the field. The roundup of guidelines is accompanied by a medley of references to additional resources on the Web.

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