Saturday, December 22, 2012

Gold ETF Forecast for the Springtime of the 21st Century

Cycles of Boom and Bust
for the Commodity and
Top Exchange Traded Funds

A forecast of the top exchange traded fund (ETF) for the gold market sets the stage for an orderly approach to investing in precious metals. In drumming up an agenda, the main vehicles for investment fall into two broad classes: the commodity itself versus the producers within the mining industry. Naturally, each mode of transport comes with its own combo of strengths and drawbacks.

In order to sketch out the prospects downstream, the deft investor looks first in the opposite direction. On one hand, the conditions of the past will never be fully duplicated in the future. Even so, the crucial features of the market are sure to crop up again and again as time goes by.

As in other parts of the economy at large, a watershed in the gold market popped up with the financial crisis of 2008 along with the Great Recession. The severe conditions of the debacle, followed by the fitful recovery of the markets in its aftermath, laid bare the raw fibers of the financial forum and the real economy.

Looking to the future, the demand for gold is slated to burgeon until at least the second half of the 21st century. The lusty trend is the prime mover behind the yellow metal over the long haul. On the other hand, the market is sure to be battered along the way by an endless hail of upthrows and downcasts.

From a larger stance, the buildup of the global economy fuels a groundswell of demand for gold. The uplift is of course a godsend for the producers of the commodity. If prices are rising, then profits should increase for the industry as a whole over the short term as well as the medium range. Over the long run, however, the inrush of newcomers in a budding field – along with the rigors of competition – can lead to the squelch of earnings for the entire cast both old and new. The cruddy outcome is an example of the distinction between the fortunes of the commodity and its producers.

These and other factors play a vital role in sizing up the prospects for the gold market. As a first step in sorting out the muddle, a primal task is to examine the behavior of the marketplace during the tumultuous period that straddled the financial crisis and its aftermath. A second thrust lies in the difference between the movements of the raw commodity versus the antics of the mining stocks. A third function is to map out the key features of the gold market over the years and decades to come.

Since the turn of the millennium, the golden metal has enjoyed a prolonged upswell in spite of the occasional setback. A case in point was the ascent that started in early 2010 and lasted until it faltered in the latter part of the following year. 

For the bulk of investors, the main vehicle for tracking the commodity lies in an exchange traded fund sporting the ticker symbol of GLD. Looking downrange, the next milestone for the index fund stands at its previous peak of some $185 per ounce. As things stand, the latter landmark will be reached in 2013. This objective lies $35 above the current support at the $150 level. In fractional terms, the increase amounts to a gain of some 23% in short order.

After regaining its previous summit, GLD will take a breather before pushing ahead once more. On current trends, the vehicle should reach a sizable barrier at the $185 mark by the following winter. 

Shortly afterward, the commodity itself will touch a price of $2,000 per ounce in the commercial market. The big round number will then kindle a gale of excitement from the mass media and the investing public.

To add to the bluster, a ragtag conga of talking heads will sashay out of the woodwork. The self-proclaimed swamis will declare that the prospects for the metal are not only bounteous but simply boundless.

The outburst of hype will drive the metal higher in the futures market that serves as the touchstone for commercial transactions in gold bullion. In that case, the tracking fund in the stock market will of course follow suit. In the dash to the upside, the next hurdle for the ETF is a price level of $195 per share.

After hitting that target, the stock will fall back toward the $185 zone. Shortly afterward, the ETF should regain its vigor and zoom past $195 within a matter of months.

The next milepost is a hefty barrier at the $220 level. The latter objective lies another $35 past the first milestone at $185. In relative terms, the advance comes out to a hike of a tad under 19%.

After reaching that outpost, GLD will stagger back toward the previous hurdle at $195. Before long, though, the rig will muster enough energy to push ahead once more. All that will take us through 2014 and into the middle of this decade.

By contrast to the raw commodity, the turnout for the mining firms depends more on the hoopla amongst the punters on the bourse than the outlook for either the yellow metal or the stock market at large. When GLD pushes past its prior peak, however, the investing public will once again chase after mining stocks.

In due course, the value of the metal in the commercial market will break through the psychic barrier at $2,000 per ounce. The resulting spate of breathless reports from the mass media will then rouse the general public into a frenzy.

Soon thereafter, the index funds for the mining firms will pare back their losses to date and shoot past their previous peaks. The surge of the mining stocks will draw in a deluge of cash from all quarters, including myriads of plungers who had never before heard about GLD, let alone the index funds for the mining firms.

And so a bubble will duly form as the madding crowd rushes into the arena for a piece of the action. At this stage, however, the savvy players in the ring will begin a gradual process of withdrawal from the futures market for gold bullion as well the index funds for the mining firms.

As the bonfire in the bazaar begins to sputter, a growing cohort of antsy players will wonder whether the uptrend in gold has run its course. And soon enough, the specter of a smashup will turn into a reality.

The ensuing crash of the market will of course deal a body blow to the mass of latecomers to the game. The first big punchout is likely to occur around 2015 or so.

Even so, the fiasco will not mark the end of the boom in gold by a long shot. After wallowing in a funk for a couple of years, the commodity will be ready to stage a bigger comeback.

As the market tramps upward and pushes past one milepost after another, millions of newcomers will jump on the bandwagon. In a fit of delirium, the gamesters in the ring will drive the metal to batty levels rivaled only by the lunacy of the Internet fever during the 1990s.

Swept aloft by the uproar, the sizzling metal will not only reach fat round numbers like $5,000 per ounce but zip right past them. There’s a good chance that figures of this magnitude will spring up by the second half of the 2010s.

Moreover the beefy prices will comprise mere waystations on a multistage journey to the $10,000 level. The latter target is likely to be reached around the 2020s.

By contrast to the raw commodity, the index funds for the mining firms depend largely on the mood of the investing public rather than the action in the commercial market. In the throes of a feeding frenzy, the equities of the major producers could vault by tenfold or more within a matter of years. Meanwhile the index fund for junior miners is apt to explode in excess of a hundredfold beyond its initial peak. 

Such is the wild ride that awaits investors of all stripes in the arena. In these ways, the antics of the gold market in the decades ahead will eclipse the tidal waves of boom and bust in all previous eras.

Read more on Gold ETF Forecast for the Springtime of the 21st Century.

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Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Market Forecasting

Prediction of the
Financial Forum and Real Economy

Forecasting paves the way for a wholesome program of investment, whether in the financial markets or the real economy. To this end, the techniques of prediction run the gamut from the simple and casual to the complex and formal.

On the scale of rigor, the low end of the range includes a hunch by an investor that a newborn technology will create a vibrant market and render obsolete a mature industry. Meanwhile the opposite end of the spectrum is showcased by a software agent that predicts the price of a stock and learns from its mistakes in order to improve its performance over time.

An investor who wants to divine a market of any sort faces a daunting task. The stumbling blocks include the whims of human actors and the flukes of natural forces. A case in point is a ramp-up of the stock market to ditsy heights by a horde of berserk traders. Another sample involves the smackdown of a regional economy by a monstrous earthquake that knocks out a swath of manufacturing plants and power grids.

In a world racked by chance and chaos, the hapless investor is hard-pressed to peer into the future with any measure of confidence. Even so, the lack of clarity does not mean that anything goes. On the contrary, anyone with a smidgen of sense knows that some things are more likely to crop up than others.

In that case, a glimpse of the future is a matter of degree rather than category. For this reason, the meaningful question is not whether prediction is feasible, but to what extent the task can be achieved.

In a way, the forecaster encounters the same type of challenge in selecting a technique for prediction. More precisely, the apt approach happens to be relative rather than absolute. The best choice of method depends on a bunch of factors including the skills of the user and the thrust of the application.

To begin with, each approach has its strengths and drawbacks. Moreover a given method may work like a charm in the hands of one user but not another. For these and other reasons, the shrewd player weighs a variety of techniques before deciding on the right tool for the job in forecasting a market of any sort.

Read more on Market Forecasting.

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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Boosting an ETF with an IPO

How an Initial Public Offering
Can Fortify an Exchange Traded Fund

A dandy way to excel in the stock market is to beef up an exchange traded fund (ETF) with an initial public offering (IPO). By this means, the efficiency and longevity of an ETF can be bolstered by the peppy performance of an IPO.

For the bulk of investors, an exchange traded fund is the best vehicle for participating in motley markets ranging from equities and bonds to currencies and commodities. In terms of scope, an ETF may cover a broad swath such as an entire industry or the global economy at large. A case in point is an index fund based on the flagship benchmark of the stock market; namely, the Standard & Poor’s index of 500 stalwarts on the bourse.

Looking in the opposite direction, a communal pool could focus on a compact niche. Examples of this stripe run the gamut from computer hardware and real estate to foreign currencies and precious metals.

Whatever the choice of market, though, an initial public offering can perk up the return on a portfolio. Since the autumn of the 20th century, a raft of studies have shown that an IPO is wont to outpace the bourse as a whole during the first year or two of its debut.

On the downside, though, the basic equities of operating companies are in general inapt as the main vehicles for investment by the bulk of players. The danger lies in the vulnerability to bombshells in every industry ranging from mining and shipping to software and banking. The menace springs from a fact of life which is ignored by the simplistic models of financial economics. In the real world, companies of all stripes trip up and go bust all of a sudden, or fade out and die off in slow motion.

By contrast, an index fund is much more likely to lead a long and productive life. The longevity of the vessel springs from the ceaseless process of renewal as the flagging members of the pantheon are replacing by the rising stars in the marketplace. For this reason, the best course for the prudent investor is to funnel most or all of their savings into communal pools based on market benchmarks.

On a negative note, a market index is wont to track the established firms within a particular domain. In that case, the corresponding fund will contain little or nothing in the way of newborn ventures.

On the upside, though, the fresh-faced stocks tend to outpace their older peers; and likewise outrun the bourse as a whole. For this reason, a canny investor can perk up the return on investment by fleshing out a primary position in an ETF with a secondary stake in one or more fledgling stocks within the same niche.

For the sake of concreteness, we examine these ideas by way of an ETF in the energy sector along with examples of IPOs in the target domain. The case study involves an index fund for a master limited partnership (MLP), a type of vehicle which is highly suited for the sober investor bent on sound returns at low risk. In this corner of the stock market, the standard bearer lies in an exchange traded fund that trades under the ticker symbol of AMLP.

Read more on Boosting an ETF with an IPO.
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Wednesday, September 26, 2012

How to Invest in Gold ETFs

Top Exchange Traded Funds
for the
Commodity and Its Producers
A handy way to invest in gold is to take up communal vehicles known as exchange traded funds (ETFs). The mission of the funds is to track the market for gold via direct or indirect means. In the upfront approach, a communal pool holds a stockpile of gold bullion. For the oblique mode, the custom is to hold the stocks of companies engaged in the mining industry by way of exploration, extraction or other functions.

This article examines the top 3 exchange traded funds for the gold market. The first pool takes the direct approach by amassing a trove of the raw commodity. Meanwhile the other two vehicles rely on the indirect tack by holding stakes in the equities of the leading firms in the field.
Read more on How to Invest in Gold ETFs.
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Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Best Timespan for Market Analysis

Guide plus Showcase
of Exchange Traded Funds
for Emerging and Developed Markets

The best choice of timespan for a performance review depends on the status of the investor as well as the state of the market. In this way, a fitting window in the backward direction is closely tied to the planning horizon going forward coupled with the likely conditions downrange.

In that case, the impact of an unusual event in the past ought to be downplayed or excised entirely. To this end, one approach is to select a short window that excludes the exceptional fluke. The second ploy is to pick a prolonged stretch that serves to dilute the impact of the aberrant case on the marketplace.

Depending on the context, the investor may have scant choice regarding the use of one approach or the other. An example involves a youthful asset which has little to offer in the  way of a price history. In that case, the use of a prolonged window is out of the question.

An apt choice of timespan applies to any type of market, whether tangible or virtual. An example is found in a lonesome stock or a personal portfolio, a raw commodity or a national economy.

In the modern era, a glaring anomaly cropped up with the financial crisis of 2008 and its aftermath. The bombshell sparked the worst smashup of the financial system since the Great Depression of the 1930s, along with the biggest flop of the global economy since the Second World War. As a result, the blowup was an oddball on a whopping scale which is unlikely to recur in the near future.

Given this backdrop, a wanton choice of time frame for market analysis could lead to warped results which have scant relevance to the prospects downrange. In that case, the cogent approach is to tone down or cut out the extreme effects resulting from the financial catastrophe.

These issues are examined by way of a case study dealing with exchange traded funds for the emerging regions as well as developed markets. The quartet of index funds under review includes a couple of vehicles which in some sense straddle the entire planet. By contrast, the remaining two vessels focus on a pair of individual countries; namely, the U.S. and Britain which serve as spearheads of the financial forum and the real economy for the world at large.

Read more on Best Timespan for Market Analysis.

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Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Charade of the Debt Crisis

From Buffoonery to Tragedy
in the
Debt Folly and Euro Farce

A rampant blunder in real and financial markets involves a mix-up between the destination and the journey. A showcase cropped up with the financial crisis of 2008 and its aftermath. During the debacle, frantic politicians wasted mounds of public funds even as they chose to cripple the financial forum and the real economy. From a larger stance, a solid grasp of means and ends is the first step toward thrashing out a cogent agenda in any domain.


In complex fields such as finance and economics, a common bungle involves a mix-up between the destination and the journey. The confusion is showcased by the hoopla during the financial crisis of 2008 in tandem with the debt crisis in Europe.

Among the raft of muck-ups, one sample was the batty policy of the politicos for propping up the market for sovereign bonds in Southern Europe. According to the rhetoric of the ringleaders, an official default by Greece or any other country in the vicinity would shatter the common currency in Europe, then clobber the regional economy as well as the entire planet.

No doubt some of the actors in the public sector were taken in by the sham arguments. If so, the goof-up stemmed from a patchy grasp of financial and economic issues. An example of this sort lay in the proper role of the banking industry in the economy at large. Another instance involved the true purpose and import of a currency union across neighboring countries.

Amid the din and smog, the politicos plundered the public treasury in order to prop up the bludgeoned securities. Sadly, the inept move was a whopping waste of the taxpayer’s money. Worse yet, the boondoggles hampered the real and financial markets, thus ensuring that the entire population would lose trillions of dollars worth of income foregone due to a crippled economy.

In any field of human enterprise, a solid grasp of means and ends is the first step toward fixing up a worthwhile solution while cutting down waste and beefing up productivity. The next step is to thrash out a trenchant plan that exploits the opportunities and avoids the pitfalls in the arena. The third task is to put the resulting plan into action with gumption and dispatch.

Note: This report is available from major distributors and retailers of electronic books. A notable example lies in Amazon or Smashwords.

The title is offered in a variety of formats ranging from PDF and HTML to EPUB and MOBI. Further information on the publication can be obtained by clicking on the image above.

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Friday, July 20, 2012

Guide to Global Investing

Top Resources for Growth Markets

The top resources for investing in global markets run the gamut from tutorial sites to news sources. For the earnest investor focused on sound growth, the vital topics range from budding trends and market forecasting to feisty ventures and risk appraisal.


The markets of the world continue to merge into a single ball of complexity. The ties that bind stretch across national borders as well as asset classes.

Amid the ferment, the opportunities in the marketplace can crop up in diverse forms in distant countries as well as nearby locales. The same is true of the threats, whether blatant or subtle, that lie in wait for the rash investor in a hurry.

As an example, a crash of the stock market in the U.S. is sure to whomp the currencies in Asia as well as the commodities in Africa. Given the host of linkages amongst disparate markets, the shrewd investor keeps track of a welter of asset classes as well as geographic locales.

Another hallmark of the millennium is the wealth of resources available on the global infobahn. The Web is a boundless source of information on diverse markets round the planet.

The purpose of this review is to present a selection of vital resources for the earnest investor bent on sound growth in a global marketplace. The nuggets in the lineup run the gamut from tutorial articles and market reviews to news portals and forecasting hubs.

Note: This report is available from major distributors and retailers of electronic books. A notable example lies in Amazon.

The title is offered in a variety of formats ranging from PDF and HTML to EPUB and MOBI. Further information on the publication can be obtained from popular purveyors of ebooks such as Smashwords.

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Friday, June 29, 2012

How to Grow and Prosper

Basic Laws of Personal Productivity,
Competitive Strategy and Public Policy

A universal set of guidelines can serve as the groundwork for progress and prosperity in any domain. For this purpose, the basic laws of growth deal with the selection of hearty goals along with their pursuit with rigor and dispatch.

The principles apply to the panoply of human enterprise, ranging from personal affairs and corporate strategies to government policies and international programs.


Growth and prosperity are hallmarks of the modern culture. The folks bent on forging ahead run the gamut from the workman and entrepreneur to the executive and politician.

For all the yearnings of progress, however, it’s hard to find anyone who goes about the business of advancement in a coherent way. Instead, the usual shtick suffers from a welter of lapses and missteps that trip up the decision maker. As a result, the mass of effort brought to bear on the task is haphazard and disjointed, or even worthless and downright counterproductive.

On the bright side, though, a universal set of maxims can serve as the foundation for a lucid course of action in any domain. In this light, the Code of Growth is applicable to the panoply of human endeavor, ranging from personal affairs and corporate campaigns to economic policies and multinational programs. From a different angle, the functions in hand run the gamut from creative work and vaulting innovation to financial regulation and international trade.

In a nutshell, the purpose of this primer is to explain how the basic laws of growth can be applied to the totality of innovation and enterprise in a world of constrained resources. The general guidelines are relevant to progressive projects in any domain, ranging from personal advancement and corporate strategy to public policy and global growth.

Note: This report is available from major distributors and retailers of electronic books. A notable example lies in Smashwords or Amazon.

The ebook is offered in a variety of formats ranging from PDF and HTML to EPUB and MOBI. For instance, clicking the image above will bring up detailed information on the version for Amazon Kindle.

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Saturday, June 16, 2012

Market Timing via Monthly and Holiday Patterns

A Free Lunch in the Stock Market 

The stock market displays a medley of patterns that can serve as the crux of a timing strategy. A showcase lies in the oft-seen surge of the market around the turn of the month as well as the run-up to a holiday.

As with all things, the timing strategy does have its shortcomings. An example involves the need to dart in and out of the market more than a dozen times a year in order to take full advantage of the patterns.

Another drawback stems from the higher rate of income tax on short-term profits as opposed to long-run gains in the stock market. The precise impact will of course depend on the specific circumstances such as the trader’s country of residence.

Despite of the hassles, though, trading with the calendar can deliver a higher payoff at less risk than the humdrum policy of buying stocks and holding them indefinitely. For this reason, a timing strategy based on monthly cycles and market holidays represents a free lunch on Wall Street.

Read more on Market Timing via Monthly and Holiday Patterns.

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Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Forecasting Crashes of the Stock Market

Impact of Cycles versus Bubbles
at the
Dawn of the 21st Century
The stock market can crash whether or not a bubble exists. A showcase was the smashup of 2011 which popped up in tune with the long-range pattern of bombshells but otherwise without any good reason.

The pointless breakdown had one positive outcome. Given the confirmation of the running sequence of crackups, the schedule of flaps appeared to be on track in spite of the partial derailing linked to financial crisis of 2008.

For the wordly investor, the main event of 2011 was the blowup of the stock market in the U.S. and elsewhere, along with the bedlam in kindred fields such as commodities and currencies. As is often the case, the mayhem caused by the participants in the arena – be they part-time amateurs or full-time professionals – was for the most part a premature and avoidable ordeal for the entire community.

The teardown of the markets was prompted by the specter of a full-blown recession in the global economy within half a year or so. One reason for the jitters stemmed from the fitful progress of the industrial nations such as the United States, Britain and Japan. Another factor lay in the brouhaha over the debt crisis in Europe, along with widespread fears of a breakup of the euro along with the collapse of the regional economy.

For a number of years, the politicians in the developed world had been going out of their way to prop up the distortions in the marketplace that arose during the run-up to the financial crisis of 2008. Instead of prolonging the malady, the politicos ought to have left the economy alone to heal itself. Better yet, public policy could have helped to undo the damage done throughout the entire meshwork of production and distribution. Thanks to the counterproductive moves of the pols, however, the economy was doomed to struggle and flail for many years to come.

On a positive note, the crash of the stock market in 2011 showed up in sync with the long-running schedule of meltdowns. For this reason, the sequence of blowups appeared to be on track despite the partial derailing linked to financial crisis of 2008. As a consequence, the next crackup of the bourse could well occur around 2017 in line with the ongoing chain of flaps in the modern era.


Note: This report is a revised and extended version of an article published last year titled Forecasting the Next Crash of the Stock Market. The new publication is available in a variety of formats ranging from HTML to PDF. A popular form lies in the EPUB standard favored by many devices including Apple products such as the iPad. A variant of EPUB is the MOBI version used by Amazon Kindle. Further details on the report are available by clicking the image to the right.
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Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Top 3 Exchange Traded Funds for the Middle East


ETF Comparison 

for Egypt, Israel and Turkey 

Against the USA

For the worldly investor, a handy way to access the Middle East – including the frontier markets of Egypt, Israel and Turkey – is to take up the corresponding exchange traded funds (ETFs) listed in the USA. In this article, we examine the performance of the index funds in the context of the American market which serves as the bellwether for the bourses of the world.

The ETFs are compared in terms of growth along with the risk entailed. For a balanced view of performance, the period of evaluation should cover a stretch in which the market has experienced a boom as well as a bust. The index funds can then be weighed in view of the return on investment coupled with the degree of volatility.

These factors are examined for the index funds dealing with Egypt, Israel and Turkey; namely, EGPT, EIS and TUR respectively. Moreover, the three pools are compared against the behavior of SPY, the flagship fund for the American bourse.

Read more on Top 3 Exchange Traded Funds for the Middle East.

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Thursday, April 26, 2012

Performance of Energy ETFs


Comparison of Top Exchange Traded Funds
for Equity and Commodity Markets

The exchange traded funds (ETFs) for the energy sector include vehicles for tracking the price of crude oil in the commercial market as well as the equities of operating companies listed in the stock market. Among the index funds in this sector, a stalwart lies in United States Oil; the exchange traded fund is listed on the U.S. bourse under the ticker symbol of USO. On the other hand, the primo focused on the equity market is found in the Energy Select Sector SPDR, which flies under the banner of XLE.

This articles examines the performance of the two beacons over the span of 5 years ending in spring 2012. On one hand, the energy branch of the stock market has a bunch of unique properties due to its heavy reliance on the fortunes of crude oil in the real economy. Despite the close linkage to the physical market, though, every exchange traded fund is also an equity traded on a stock exchange.

For this reason, a vital question for the worldly investor is the performance of USO and XLE compared to the stock market at large. In the latter case, the flagship fund for the equity market as a whole lies in the tracking vehicle for the S&P 500 index; the exchange traded fund goes by the symbol of SPY.

Given this backdrop, we examine the performance of USO and XLE and compare the results against the turnout for SPY. In the appraisal, the key criteria take the form of volatility, payoff, and risk-adjusted gain.
Read more on Performance of Energy ETFs.

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Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Top 3 Index Funds for North America

Performance Review for Canada, Mexico and USA

In choosing a robust vehicle for investing in North America, a good place to start is to prepare a list of the top index funds for Canada, Mexico and USA. For each country, an apt choice is an exchange traded fund with a proven track record among those listed on the leading stock market in the world: namely, the U.S. bourse.

The next step is to examine the candidates in terms of growth as well as risk. For a rounded view of performance, the period of evaluation has to cover a stretch in which the market has experienced a boom as well as a bust. The funds can then be compared in terms of the return on investment as well as the level of volatility.

Another vital gauge lies in a hybrid measure of risk-adjusted gain that takes into account the overall payoff as well as the characteristic turbulence along the way. These factors are examined for the top index funds dealing with Canada, Mexico and USA; namely, EWC, EWW and SPY.


A primer on “Cruddy Information on Exchange Traded Funds” is available under the section on Investment Funds at MintKit –

An article on “Financial Risk” talks about obvious as well as elusive hazards for investors –

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Tuesday, February 14, 2012

How to Invest in Exchange Traded Funds

  Primer and Model  
  Top Index Funds for Emerging Markets  


A prudent person who plans to invest in exchange traded funds (ETFs) has to consider a number of crucial factors. The key items include the measures of performance such as the return on investment and the risk of loss. Another type of concern is the impact of the data set, like the window of evaluation and the sampling period between observations.

This primer lays the groundwork for investing in ETFs of any sort in the global marketplace. Moreover, the process is showcased by a suite of top index funds for the emerging markets of Brazil, China, India and Russia.

Additional Resources

A survey of “Financial Risk” is available here:

A primer dealing with “Cruddy Information on Exchange Traded Funds” can be found under the Investment Funds section at MintKit Core:

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Friday, January 27, 2012

Market Outlook for the Early 2010s

Forecast of the Stock Market and Global Economy

A systematic approach to investing requires a prediction of the stock market and the global economy, whether the call happens to be a precise forecast or a rough guesstimate. As a backdrop for picturing the markets downrange, the main event of 2011 was the breakdown of the equity market along with the turmoil in neighboring fields such as commodities and currencies.

One reason for the hullabaloo stemmed from the fitful progress of the economy in developed countries like the U.S., Britain and Japan. Another factor stemmed from the tizzy over the debt crisis in southern Europe, along with widespread fears of a breakup of the euro and collapse of the economy across the continent. These worries brought up the specter of a world plunging into a full-blown recession.

Despite the current jitters in the marketplace, however, the global economy is slated to expand by more than 3% in 2012. Meanwhile the corresponding figure for the U.S. is about 2% even as Europe ekes out a paltry gain.

On the financial front, the stock markets of the mature economies are likely to expand by roughly 16% before the year is out. Better yet, the bourses in the emerging countries should surge by 30% or so.

On a different note, the smackdown of the stock market last year cropped up in sync with the long-range schedule of crashes. As a result, the sequence of blowouts appears to be on track in spite of the muddled breakdown – rather than a clear-cut collapse – after the bourse touched a peak in 2007. As things stand, the next crash of the stock market is likely to occur around 2017 in tune with the running tempo of bombshells since the previous century.

Read the full contents of the electronic book here: Market Outlook for the Early 2010s.

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