Saturday, January 22, 2011

Forecast of the Stock Market and the Global Economy

Outlook for 2011 and Beyond

In contrast to common perception, the stock market and the real economy are intertwined in the present as well as the future – a linkage which can serve as the basis for forecasting. The process is illustrated by way of a timely survey: a forecast of the stock market along with the global economy for 2011 and beyond.

On the whole, the volume of economic output is likely to expand by roughly 4.5% over the year to come. The same is true of the growth rate for much of this decade.

In line with the norm, though, the expansion will be patchy rather than uniform. For instance, mature economies such as the U.S. will grow by a mere couple of percent per year after adjusting for inflation.

Furthermore, about 1% of the increase will stem from the buildup of the population due to the net flow of immigration over emigration.  In that case, the rate of productivity will creep upward by just 1% per year. The same outcome lies in store for the average level of income.

On the other hand, the spearheads in the emerging regions will gallop ahead at a blistering pace. In places such as China and India, the upsurge of economic output is set to reach 9% or more per annum.

Meanwhile, the exporters to the budding countries will fare somewhere in between the two extremes of growth. An example is found in Australia or Canada as exporters of raw materials. Another sample is Germany or Korea as suppliers of capital equipment or finished goods.

In the absence of any big surprises, the markets round the planet are destined to enjoy a refreshing upswing in 2011. Moreover, the outlook for the years to come is a bit less sparkling but still cheery even so.

On the upside, the winds of fortune smile upon the bourses of the world. During the run-up to the Presidential race, the U.S. government will whip up a storm of hubbub in a heated effort to fire up the economy.

For the most part, the hoopla will be a blast of hot air without much impact over the long range. Even so, any dumpage of money into the marketplace by way of fiscal programs or monetary schemes will serve to nudge up the volume of commercial transactions. In that case, the gush of spending is bound to be a tonic for the stock market, at least over the short and medium range.

As a result, the U.S. bourse is slated to surge by 15% or so over the course of 2011. Since the American market is a beacon for the rest of the world, the upswell will bolster other bourses throughout the planet.

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