Top 11 Uses of Artificial Intelligence for Investors

 

Brainy Bots for Boosting Returns and Shrinking Risks

 — 

Artificial intelligence is the ultimate tool for all investors ranging from novices to veterans. This report presents the top 11 roles for smart agents. The functions span the spectrum from market analysis, trend discovery, and asset appraisal to sentiment review, scenario scanning, and risk management. The examples deal mostly with applications in the stock market. However, the same concepts and methods apply to other asset classes ranging from bonds and options to commodities and realties.

A brainy bot can scour the real and financial markets to detect patterns, uncover trends, and extract useful insights. For this purpose, the agent may digest information in motley forms ranging from text and graphics to audio and video. The smartbot can summarize the contents for busy investors then devise deft strategies for boosting returns while pruning risks. In short, virtual agents act as friendly guides and tireless aides for savvy investors who want to expand their horizons and improve their performance in a complex and dynamic environment.

 

Notes

The full report is titled, “Top 11 Uses of Artificial Intelligence for Investors: Brainy Bots for Boosting Returns and Shrinking Risks”. The ebook is available in EPUB format at the Internet Archive. Meanwhile, an alternate form of the booklet appears in Kindle mode at Amazon. 

A digest of the report has been cast into a video under the title of “Top 11 Uses of Artificial Intelligence for Investors: From Vetting Stocks and Forecasting Trends to Boosting Gains and Cutting Risks”. While the main title is identical, the subtitle differs somewhat. The briefing is available at a couple of sites including Youtube and Linkedin. 🤖 

*       *       *

 

Top Trends in Artificial Intelligence

 

Market Forecasting for Innovators and Investors till 2030 and Beyond

 — 

Artificial intelligence is reshaping the entire economy in areas ranging from farming and healthcare to leisure and artwork. The technology and its applications will continue to revamp one industry after another. As a result, the global economy should more than double by 2030. 

One payoff will be a bonanza for the fledgling ventures and established firms that embrace the technology with gusto. The payout is similar for the shrewd investors that bankroll the plucky entrepreneurs and feisty companies at the leading edge. On the glum side, though, legions of slick operators will hype up the gleaming prospects on the horizon to pump up tinsel outfits, thus wheedling billions of dollars from millions of gullible investors. Sadly, the bilkers and their backers will go bust in droves. 

To sum up, the ascent of artificial intelligence will unleash a renaissance in areas ranging from science and business to healthcare and culture. As the revolution unfolds, a core of tuned-in players who make the right moves will reap a cornucopia of rewards amid the greatest creation of wealth the world has ever seen.

 

Notes

The full report is titled “Top Trends in Artificial Intelligence”. The ebook is available at several sites on the Internet. For instance, the booklet may be downloaded in the handy EPUB format at Smashwords (however, the HTML version of the report – which was generated automatically for direct display on a browser – contains some minor flaws in formatting). Moreover, an alternative form of the ebook lies in the Kindle mode at Amazon. 

The report has also been recast into a video bearing the same title. The briefing is available at Youtube, Linkedin, or Internet Archive. 🤖 

*       *       *

 

MintKit Growth Index – Final Report

A Lean Benchmark of the Stock Marketfor Spry Growth at Modest Risk 
 — 

A pool of lively stocks based on equal weighting can beat the top benchmark of the bourse at modest risk over a representative window that covers a full cycle of boom and bust. Moreover, the setup requires a minim of time and effort; to wit, culling a dozen stocks or less in a single session lasting a couple of hours each year.

The lean strategy was tracked by the MintKit Growth Index (MGX). Since the streamlined method applies to portfolios both large and small, it befits a personal account as much as a large vessel such as a mutual fund or a pension fund. In particular, the lithe approach suits a busy investor who can devote only a dollop of time and effort to minding their portfolio.

The case study ran for half a decade starting in 2018. During this stretch, the representative window on the market spanned four years ending in 2021. Over that timespan, the sparky lodestar eclipsed the top benchmark of the bourse; namely, the S&P 500 Index (SPX). More precisely, the MGX gained 18.4% per year on average as opposed to 15.5% for the SPX over the same period.

In short, the study affirmed the merits of a combo of equal weighting, deft selection, and light handling of a lean portfolio. Simply put, a demure but mindful approach to tending spry stocks using equal weights can outpace the SPX. Moreover, the superior performance may be attained at modest risk by devoting only a couple of hours in a single session each year.

 

Note

The full review is titled “MintKit Growth Index – Final Report”. The document may be downloaded in PDF mode at MintKit Gist or Internet Archive.

*       *       *

 

Why Central Banks Fail in Fighting Inflation and Recession

Roundup of Acute Problems and Wholesome Solutions 
 — 

Central banks often botch their mission to pursue high employment and stable prices while avoiding the dual banes of inflation and recession. The direct cause of the foul-up: a focus on lagging signals rather than current signs, let alone leading cues. Simply put, the stewards drive the economy while staring at the rear-view mirror. 

According to an old adage, economists have predicted 7 out of the last 3 recessions. Remarkably, though, one type of maven in the business world wields superb skills in pegging business cycles including early signs of recession and inflation.

On the glum side, the blunders of central banks pose merely the tip of the iceberg of stumpers in the public sector. On the bright side, however, the proper course becomes clear enough once the sinkers have been charted and fathomed. From a larger stance, the culture of an entire society – namely, the totality of values and customs – does not change overnight. For this reason, the full range of problems surveyed here will not be redressed anytime soon.

Yet, one hang-up in particular could and should be cured at once; namely, the shortfall of practical knowledge among the central banks of the world. The main deficit concerns the web of causes and effects behind the business cycle in areas ranging from waves of commercial activity and shifts in consumer demand to sprouts of budding inflation and curbs on hiring policies. 

As a remedy, a central bank worth the name ought to form a Board of Operative Counsel and pay heed to the insights and suggestions on hand. The Board should comprise a handful of adepts fully versed in the workings of the marketplace. In this light, an entrepreneur has learned through wrackful experience how to grasp the key factors ranging from the cost of inputs and shifts in demand to the bloat of inventory and need for layoffs. From the converse stance, a self-starter who does not learn to read the winds of change turns promptly into a failure and a dropout.

To sum up, the central banks of the world botch their roles due to patchy knowledge of the driving forces as well as actual conditions in the marketplace. For starters, the policymakers rely on woolly models sprung from ivory towers. The airy yarns include fairy tales such as the boundless wisdom of producers and utter rationality of consumers, the instant adjustment of prices and perfect allotment of resources. One byproduct is a false faith in inapt yardsticks, as in the likes of lagging signals including the unemployment rate and the consumer price index. 

In a nutshell, the public sector suffers from myriads of flaws. A showcase involves the political class that panders to hoggish factions to the detriment of the entire society. Another sample concerns a shallow grasp of the driving forces in the economy along with their knotty impacts in areas ranging from production and employment to consumption and inflation. Happily, though, a cogent picture of the ills sets the stage for wholesome cures for public policy including monetary strategy.

 

Notes

The full report is titled “Why Central Banks Fail in Fighting Inflation and Recession”. The ebook may be downloaded in EPUB format at Smashwords, or in Kindle mode at Amazon.

*       *       *

 

Top 5 Boosters for Tesla till 2025

 

Combo of Internal and External Forces Driving the Stock 

 — 

The top 5 reasons for Tesla to surge until 2025 include internal as well as external factors. The boosters range from supply chains and novel factories to government spurs and election patterns.

An example of an internal driver lies in manufacturing innovation, as in the case of a giant casting that replaces the entire rear underbody of a car comprising some 70 parts. Another sample concerns the ramp-up of fledgling factories in Germany and Texas, each of which will reach the first stage of mass production by early 2023 along with lush economies of scale.

Meanwhile, an external facet appears in a broad program of government incentives. Thanks to its talents in multiple fields, Tesla is uniquely placed to grasp the fresh opportunities in areas ranging from battery cells and electric cars to solar roofs and power systems. Another sample concerns the gradual easing of supply constraints in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. The go-getter has largely cleared the bottlenecks even though the shortage of supplies continues to hamper many other firms round the world. 

In short, Tesla and its stock are poised to rocket higher over the next few years. Moreover, the prospects over the long range are so stellar as to challenge the limits of prescience and credence at this early stage.

 

Notes

The full report is titled “Top 5 Boosters for Tesla till 2025”. The ebook is available at a number of sites in cyberspace. For instance, the booklet may be downloaded in EPUB format at the Internet Archive; or in Kindle mode at Amazon.

*       *       *

  

#Investing  $TSLA 

How Tesla Beats Entrenched Giants

Top 5 Virtues of Grit and Speed Over Greed and Sloth
 — 

Year after year, scores of entrenched giants make loud claims about overtaking Tesla in vital fields ranging from electric cars and self-driving programs to solar roofs and motile batteries. An example involves a pack of gassy carmakers such as Ford and General Motors, Mercedes and Toyota. 

Sadly, though, the dinosaurs steeped in the past will never match Tesla, let alone outrun the prodigy. Although Tesla is now a large company, it still sizzles with the creative spark and work ethic of a fresh startup at the cutting edge of innovation. 

The hoary firms love to trumpet gusty plans to close the gap with Tesla within a handful of years. By the time the laggers reach their milestones, however, the leader will have moved on to the next generation of technologies and products, followed by another wave of brainstorms after that. As a result, the dinos mired in the old ways will never catch up. Instead, the stragglers will continue to fall behind for reasons aplenty ranging from greed and sloth to myopia and ineptitude.

In due course, the dodos will fall by the wayside and die off in droves. Granted, a few oddballs here and there might eke out a mangy existence in skimpy niches such as dinky cars or specialized trucks, quirky toys or exotic pets. 

In that case, the honchos in charge of the holdovers will doubtless pat themselves on the back for surviving the upheavals wrought by Tesla. Yet, the scrawny remnants of the old order will scarcely resemble their hulky forms of bygone days when life was still laid-back and slow-paced.

 

Notes

The full report is titled “How Tesla Beats Entrenched Giants”. The ebook may be downloaded in EPUB format at Smashwords; or in Kindle mode at Amazon.

Moreover, a short video offers a preview of the report. The clip, labeled “How Tesla Routs Reigning Titans”, is available on Youtube.

*       *       *

  

Myths versus Facts Behind Asset Diversification

Tesla Spotlights Pitfalls and Safeguards in Risk Management 
 — 

The goal of asset diversification lies in shrunken risk for equal gain. This precept, however, shrugs off a host of grave dangers in the real and financial markets. An example involves an investor who allots a uniform sum to the firms in a newborn industry. Unfortunately, the vast majority of hatchlings are doomed to perish within a few years if not months. 

Another instance of flawed diversity concerns an index fund trained on a dynamic market such as clean energy. The products at hand could range from solar cells and electric cars to motile batteries and basic materials. In that case, the stocks will likely be weighted by their valuations on the bourse. However, certain markets such as commodities should at length contract in a green and sustainable economy. Moreover, many a miner will be poorly placed to harness the uprise even in the odd niches that do grow in the interim. 

In these and other ways, a gung-ho approach to diverseness is fraught with perils. An exception to prove the rule concerns a bellwether named Tesla. The mass of investors treats the vanguard as little more than a carmaker. Yet, the beacon also leads the way in other areas such as charging stations and advanced batteries, self-driving software and power grids. Given this backdrop, the sage investor sidesteps the markets staked by Tesla and expands instead into remote fields that lie beyond the firebrand’s sights for the foreseeable future.

In the larger scheme of things, the foul-up of asset diversification is a rampant reason for the failure of investors and pundits alike to keep up with the benchmarks of the stock market. As an antidote, a solid grasp of the myths and mistakes is a basic step toward crafting a sound program of investment.

 

Notes

The full report is titled “Myths versus Facts Behind Asset Diversification”. The document may be downloaded in EPUB format at Smashwords; in Kindle form at Amazon; and in PDF mode at the Internet Archive.

Moreover, a short video provides a preview of the report. The clip, labeled “Best Way to Diversify Beyond Tesla”, is available at Youtube.

*       *       *

  

#Investing  $TSLA 

Tesla Stock Forecast for 2022 and Beyond

Restrained Model Augurs Booming Prices
 — 

A combo of recent trends and proven records suggests that Tesla will shatter records and shower investors with flush returns. The mainspring lies in the upsurge of revenues which should trump last year’s record by well over 50%. In that case, the profits will balloon as sales further exceed the breakeven point. 

A lean and conservative model of Tesla projects the stock to grow by nearly 95% over the course of 2022. Moreover, the zesty uptrend should on the whole prevail for many years to come.

Remarkably, the boldest forecast from a survey of financial analysts reflects an uprise of the stock by just 31.7% a year hence. In relative terms, the base case from the compact model is three times the highest guesstimate of the pundits.

On the bright side, the pioneering firm has to date turned in a rousing performance in areas ranging from novel products and manufacturing breakthroughs to productivity hikes and revenue gains. On the glum side, though, the firebrand faces a host of hurdles such as jejune technologies and outmoded regulations along with production constraints and supply disruptions. Given the tussle of opposing forces, the actual outcome could end up a lot higher or somewhat lower than the current outlook. 

Despite the hurdles downstream, Tesla is slated to surpass its performance to date by a hefty amount. The records to be broken run the gamut from production volume and cost reduction to net income and stock value. While the future is never certain, some things are more likely than others.

Notes

The full report is titled, “Tesla Stock Forecast for 2022 and Beyond”. The briefing is available as an ebook at Amazon or Smashwords. 

Meanwhile, a preview of the material appears as a short video labeled, “Tesla Stock Forecast for 2022+”. The clip may be viewed at YouTube, Pinterest, or TikTok. 

*       *       *

  

$TSLA  #Investing

Tesla as an Aggressive Growth Fund

   

A Diversified Pool 

of 

High-tech Ventures

 ——— 

Tesla makes waves by building novel products for a sustainable economy starting with electric cars. As a mark of success, the dynamo has single-handedly created a mass market for clean vehicles.

Since its debut in 2003, the pioneer has gradually branched out into adjunct markets and turned into a conglomerate of high-tech ventures. The product lines on hand run the gamut from self-driving cars, solar cells, and potent batteries to insurance plans, neural supercomputers, and humanoid robots.

To be sure, Tesla is a single company from a formal stance. Even so, the wunderkind in practice bears a constellation of startups in motley sectors of the economy. For this reason, a stake in Tesla reflects a diversified portfolio of technologies and applications.

NOTE:  The report is a video titled, “Tesla as an Aggressive Growth Fund”. The briefing is available at Youtube or Vimeo.

Meanwhile, a preview of the report appears as a video clip titled, “Tesla as a High Growth Fund”. The nugget may be viewed at Youtube, Pinterest, or TikTok.

  

*       *       *

 

$TSLA  #Investing

MintKit Growth Index – Update 2022

 

A Benchmark for Spry Growth at Modest Risk

The coronavirus plague that ravaged the global economy in 2020 continued to linger in diminished form during the past year. On the upside, though, the real economy as well as the stock market trudged ahead without any major problems. 

After thrashing around during the spring and autumn, the bourse reached all-time highs by the end of 2021. As a result, the flagship benchmark – namely, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) – rose by 26.9% from the previous year. 

When the stock market forges ahead, high-growth stocks tend to outrun their plodding peers. On the glum side, though, high-flying firms in China broke down en masse this year. Among them was Alibaba – a component of the MintKit Growth Index (MGX) – which plunged by 49%. Other washouts in the Index included a couple of mining firms, each of which lost around one-quarter of its value. As a result, the benchmark advanced by just 13.2% during the year.

From a broader stance, however, the MGX still managed to outpace the SPX. To wit, the Growth Index gained 18.4% per year on average since its debut, as opposed to 15.5% for the S&P yardstick over the same stretch.

From a different angle, the MGX upon its launch was set to unity (1); that is, 100 percentage points. Given this baseline, the Index reached 196.6695 points at the end of last year.

Looking downstream, the outlook for 2022 is roughly comparable to the previous year’s. The real economy will continue to recover from the drubbing dealt by the pandemic. In that case, the stock market should tramp higher as well.

As usual, the revised roster for MGX takes a moderately aggressive approach. To wit, the goal for the new year centers on ample growth at modest risk rather than huge potential at great peril.

On a fulfilling note, this will be the fifth and last year of the current experiment that began in 2018. That is, the project to maintain and appraise the MGX will conclude at the end of 2022.

On the other hand, the basic methodology behind the Growth Index will prevail for the foreseeable future. An example involves an expansion of the screening procedure to include option contracts as well as common stocks, or a variation among the weights assigned to the members of the Index. In these and other ways, the studies downrange will break free of a number of artificial fetters imposed on MGX during the current experiment.

NOTE:  The report is a slide presentation under the title of “MintKit Growth Index – Update 2022”. The briefing is available in PDF mode at the Internet Archive.

 

*       *       *

 

Tesla’s Triumph Over Monster Media

Firebrand’s Crusade to

Topple Vested Interests,

Defy Hostile Newsmongers,

and Save the Planet

The stories told by the mass media should be treated with a healthy dose of skepticism. The iffy claims run the gamut from historical details and current events to ongoing trends and future prospects. In addition to witless goofs, the media at times willfully distort facts and fabricate tales to serve their own ends. A showcase involves a decades-long campaign to hamper Tesla in its mission to foster clean energy. The newsmongers prefer instead to plug their free-spending sponsors, thus protecting the boodle of billions of dollars per year by way of advertising along with “donations” from fossil-fuel carmakers and the like. 

The tirades against Tesla by the media and their patrons have long hindered the maverick in its efforts to build advanced products starting with electric cars. Year after year, the war of words stymied the raise of billions of dollars needed to create and manufacture complex goods for a mass market. Even today, the bashers pound the firm and keep the stock from reaching its fair value. 

On the upside, though, a gutsy corps of investors has buoyed the stock especially since 2020. In fact, a swelling throng of consumers and well-wishers is grasping the hard facts behind the dense calls of Tesla’s doom. The upheaval underway affords a golden opportunity for long-term investors. While no single asset or strategy befits all comers, some choices are better than others. For instance, a groundswell of players is learning to prize Tesla and its stock. The upgrowth reflects the natural progression of large-scale forces and macrolevel trends in green energy along with a sustainable economy. Even so, the outlook pictured here should not be viewed as a recommendation of any kind at the microlevel of the singular investor.

NOTE:  The ebook, titled “Tesla’s Triumph Over Monster Media”, is available from several sources on the Net. An example involves the Kindle edition at Amazon. Another instance concerns the PDF mode at the Internet Archive. A third sample lies in Smashwords; at the time of writing, only the EPUB and PDF versions at the latter site were free of formatting glitches. The Calibre app is a good way to read an EPUB file with a minimum of fuss as well as formatting flaws.

$TSLA #investing #trends #finance #business

*       *       *

 

Tesla’s Superpower

 

Advantage of Radical Innovation 

Over Marginal Progress

The best form of competitive advantage lies in radical innovation at warp speed on all fronts. The sweeping strategy finds its foremost champion in Tesla the pioneer as it blazes new trails in diverse domains ranging from electric cars and solar roofs to software agents and power grids. 

For this purpose, a ground rule prescribes the buildup of products and processes starting from first principles. Another pillar lies in full-spectrum dominance in the marketplace. The wholesome factors explain, for instance, how Tesla earns a plump profit on every car it sells while the old-line vendors suffer dire losses on their electric models. From a larger stance, the pacesetter succeeds in disparate fields where so many have failed before.

NOTE:  The full pamphlet is titled, “Tesla’s Superpower”. The write-up is available as a Web page at Medium. 

  

#Investing #Tesla #Outlook #Business #Strategy

*       *       *

 

Why the Price-Earnings Ratio is a Hoax

   

Tesla Spotlights 

the 

Curse and Cure

According to a rampant hoax, the ratio of price to earnings (PE) is the mainstay for gauging a stock for investment. The yardstick is meant to divine the likely direction and extent of the price level downstream.

Unfortunately, the PE ratio can and often does vary hugely from one stock to another whatever their future prospects might be. Moreover, the quotient has a way of swinging wildly over time even for a given equity. As a result, the PE metric is hereby exposed as a treacherous guide to predicting the market. 

According to the party line, a high value of PE implies that the stock is overpriced and will thus crumple before long. In reality, though, the quotient can remain lofty for ages or even climb higher. 

From a different angle, the PE quotient tends to rise with the likely rate of growth in future earnings. For this reason, the PE ratio relative to the growth rate is a much better yardstick for vetting a stock. 

That is, the PE ratio may be divided by the growth rate, G. The latter term denotes the estimate of growth in earnings on an annual basis, expressed as a percentage of the profits actually garnered over the previous 12 months. The resulting quotient is known as the PEG yardstick.

The PEG is far more consistent than the PE throughout the stock market. As a consequence, an extreme level of PEG goes a long way in gauging whether a stock is overpriced, underpriced, or moderate.

Despite this fact of life, the mass of participants – ranging from part-time amateurs to full-time professionals – believe the PE ratio to be the mainstay for valuation. As we noted earlier, though, the PE varies a great deal regardless of future prospects and is therefore pretty much useless for sizing up a stock. Instead, the PEG yardstick provides a better metric by far in gauging the zest for the widget among market participants.

On a positive note, investors in the aggregate seem to grasp the bunkum behind the PE ratio on a subconscious plane even as they affirm its primacy at a conscious level. Here is an example where people say one thing, but do something else.

To round up, investors are impulsive creatures that like to band together. For instance, the plungers pile into the ring in the heat of a bubble and flee en masse in the freeze of a panic. One upshot is a wild ride in the ratio of the current price to past earnings. For this and other reasons, the PE is a lousy guide to valuation. On the bright side, though, the punters are far more consistent when the PE is adjusted by the future growth of earnings. 

Here is a rare instance where the actors as a group do the sensible thing despite their faulty grasp of the marketplace. Whether or not a gamer believes in the fable of the PE, they must act according to the PEG in order to prevail. Otherwise they suffer the consequences and often pay dearly as a result. 

In short, the shrewd investor in order to survive and prosper has to pursue a cogent strategy in practice even if they embrace the myth of the PE from a conceptual slant. In reality, the PEG is a far better gauge for divining the current appeal and future promise of all manner of stocks.

NOTE:  The full report is titled, “Why the Price-Earnings Ratio is a Hoax”. The document in PDF form may be downloaded from the Internet Archive.

#Finance #Tesla #Investing #Stocks #Growth #Hoax #Myths

*       *       *

 

MintKit Growth Index – Update 2021

 

A Benchmark for Spry Growth at Modest Risk

 

It has been a rough year for everyone as the coronavirus pandemic roiled the real and financial markets. One nasty blow was the crash of the stock market in the spring. Luckily, though, the bourse rebounded promptly and set a new record by the end of the summer. 

After thrashing around in the autumn, the market again scaled an all-time peak by the end of the year. As a result, the flagship benchmark – namely, the S&P 500 Index – rose by some 16% over the previous year. 

When the stock market forges ahead, high-growth stocks tend to outrun their plodding peers. In keeping with the norm, the MintKit Growth Index (MGX) climbed by nearly 48% over the same timespan.

From a larger stance, the MGX upon its launch was set to unity (1); that is, 100 percentage points. From this baseline, the Index reached 173.6965 points at the end of last year.

Looking downstream, the outlook for 2021 is much brighter compared to the gloom of the past year. For one thing, the real economy will recover in stages from the drubbing caused by the pandemic. In that case, the stock market will continue to climb higher.

From a different slant, the politicians whipped up trillions of dollars out of thin air in a frantic effort to stimulate the economy in the throes of the pandemic. One fallout downrange is a swelling fear of inflation which will drive a growing throng of investors into the arms of precious metals such as gold. In that case, the mining industry will fare better than most of its peers in the near future and for many years to come. 

Against this backdrop, the revised roster for MGX takes a moderately aggressive approach to the stock market. Even so, the goal for the coming year centers on zesty growth with ample stability rather than lusty vigor with stellar potential.

NOTE:  The publication is a slide presentation under the title of “MintKit Growth Index – Update 2021”. The report is available in PDF mode at the Internet Archive. 

 

*       *       *

 

Clues from the Past Inform the Present in Creating the Future

 

Choice Emblems for Gifts

The past is an iffy and flimsy guide to the future, but it’s the only lead we’ve got. In that case, we ought to survey the past for clues and tips for working the present in order to create the future we desire.

This lodestar applies to all manner of go-getters, from students and scientists to entrepreneurs and policymakers. The formula has been distilled into a compact design to serve as a reminder and a spur to action. A representative sample of products is as follows.

Source: Trendken Shop.

*       *       *

 

Thrust of Trendken Hub

From Cosmic Memes and Comic Quips 
to Perky Signs and Trendy Clothes

The purpose of the Hub is to spotlight the creations crafted by Trendken Designs. The catchy motifs run the gamut from subtle wisdom and pointed wit to visual humor and esthetic appeal. 

The designs combine a touch of modern flair with a base of eternal themes. Examples of the latter lie in ingenuity and enterprise, elegance through simplicity, headway plus uplift. Other keynotes include cosmic truths and inspiring thoughts, comic quips and pensive quotes, guiding lights and refreshing scenes.

The ensuing products span the rainbow from posters, mugs and T-shirts to clocks, magnets and pillows. The trendy but enduring emblems make standout gifts for friends and family. The ideal recipients for the presents range from students, parents and neighbors to colleagues, helpers and clients.

*       *       *

 

Basic Models of Complex Systems

Crux of the Duplex Method
plus Case Study
of the Dow Stock Index

We live in a world full of complex and chaotic systems. A good example concerns the stock market that stymies all manner of investors ranging from casual amateurs to gung-ho professionals.

According to the Efficient Market Hypothesis, the current price always reflects the totality of information available to the investing public. As a byproduct, no one can detect any clues for predicting the market in a trusty fashion.

Instead, the market is deemed to move in an utterly erratic way. In particular, a popular myth known as the Random Walk shuffle contends that the price level shifts with equal likelihood and to similar extent in either direction, whether to the upside or downside.

At first glance, the image of pure randomness does ring true in practice. For instance, the average investor is unable to beat the market averages such as the Dow Jones index. While the lack of success may seem like a letdown, the truth is even worse. In actuality, the participants in the aggregate lag comfortably behind the benchmarks of the bourse.

If we look more closely, the lousy performance of the actors springs mostly from their frantic efforts to beat the competition. Amid the frenzy, the demons of greed and fear prod the antsy players into making impulsive moves that are not only groundless and futile but actually counterproductive and harmful to their cause.

On the bright side, though, the market displays a smattering of patterns that can be exploited by a sober person. An example concerns the seasonal cycle behind the monthly moves of the Dow benchmark.

To fathom the elusive waves in a stringent fashion, we turn to the duplex method of modeling shifty systems. The sturdy framework makes use of the binomial test: the simplest and strongest, as well as safest and surest, way to profile chancy events regardless of the domain.

To this end, we first transform the conceptual models of the stock market into a trio of precise templates. The formal blueprints are then converted into R code: the top choice of programming language and software platform for statistical workouts. The trenchant results serve to debunk the fable of efficiency and confirm the existence of hardy patterns in the marketplace.

In short, the benefits of the seasonal model lie in simplicity and potency in sundry forms. The drawcards include the ease of acquiring the information required, the leanness of the dataset employed, the ubiquity of the software deployed, the universality of the experimental setup, and the strength of the conclusions at high levels of statistical significance.  

NOTE:  The full report is titled, “Basic Models of Complex Systems”. The document may be downloaded in PDF form at Smashwords or ResearchGate. Moreover, a digest of the report is available as a video at YouTube or Internet Archive.

 

*       *       *

  

 

Outlook for Tesla

 

Prospects till Early 2021 and Beyond

Tesla makes waves in multiplex ways in the financial forum as well as the real economy. For instance, the carmaker has single-handedly created a mass market for electric vehicles. Moreover, the dynamo is now disrupting the marketplace for solar roofs, power packs, and other products bearing on clean energy. 

To set the backdrop, the trailblazer ran into a slew of roadblocks and sinkholes in the early stages. Despite the stumpers, though, the firebrand attained a respectable level of manufacturing savvy and financial stability by the end of the 2010s. In the process, the upstart confounded and humbled a multitude of skeptics. 

An ongoing example involves the corps of scoffers that sell short millions of shares of stock while presuming that the company will fail and the equity collapse. The spitfires betting against the firm lost $18 billion during the first half of 2020 alone. Some of the washouts threw in the towel while others chose to cling on and pray for redemption. Yet the peppy stock tramped higher, thus squeezing the shorts and pounding them even more. 

To be sure, the stock has to relax and unwind on occasion throughout its journey to lofty heights. At this stage, some of the vibrant prospects for the firm are already baked into the burly price of the stock. In the absence of a huge surprise, though, a hefty amount of growth still remains to be unleashed in the months and years to come. 

NOTE:  The full article is titled, “Outlook for Tesla”. The briefing may be viewed on the Web in HTML format at Medium. An alternative is to download the file in PDF mode from the Internet Archive.

 

*       *       *

 

Duplex Models of Complex Systems

Binomial Framework and Case Study 

of 

Seasonal Waves in the Stock Market 

Duplex models can portray complex systems with the utmost of simplicity, clarity and efficacy. The drawcards range from the dearth of initial premises to the soundness of final conclusions. The mettle of the binomial approach shows up, for instance, in debunking the welter of myths and misconceptions that pervades the fields of finance and economics. According to the Efficient Market Hypothesis, the marketplace always reflects the totality of information available to the general public. Since every nub of know-what and know-how informs the latest prices, no single actor can improve on the valuation of assets ranging from stocks and bonds to commodities and realties. 

One consequence is the lack of trusty cues for forecasting the market: if every clue has been fully utilized, then any move henceforth has to come as a complete surprise. Another fallout lies in the Random Walk Model that pictures the path of the market as a form of Brownian motion whereby the price level is wont to shift in any direction with equal likelihood. 

Unfortunately, the Efficient credo abounds with flaws ranging from unreal assumptions and spurious concepts to inconsistent models and faulty conclusions. A counterpoint involves the wave motion of the stock market that belies the premise of utter randomness. As a recourse, a true science ought to build on hard data and staunch precepts, rigorous models and tenable results. To this end, the study at hand represents a small but fundamental step toward a coherent theory of the marketplace. 

To underscore the gulf between the mythos and reality, the work plan takes a minimalist approach. For starters, the inquest draws only on a minute fraction of the trove of information freely available at the most popular portal among the investing public. Moreover, the quantitative analysis relies solely on the simplest technique in statistical testing. From a computational stance, the attendant program invokes a skimpy subset of the built-in functions within the core module of the R system: the leading choice of programming language and software platform for data science in disparate domains. 

NOTE:  The ebook is available under the title of “Duplex Models of Complex Systems”. The document in PDF form may be downloaded from the Internet Archive or at ResearchGate. In addition, the title is distributed in EPUB format by Apple Books and other partners of Books2Read.

*     *     *

MintKit Growth Index – Update 2020

A Benchmark for Spry Growth at Modest Risk

After enduring a crash in late 2018, the stock market scrambled higher over the past year. Despite a few fallbacks along the way, the bourse racked up hefty gains in the end. In particular, the flagship benchmark—namely, the S&P 500 Index (SPX)—rose by 28.9% during 2019.

When the stock market forges ahead, high-growth stocks tend to surpass their plodding peers. In keeping with the norm, the MintKit Growth Index (MGX) climbed by 33.5%.

From a larger stance, the MGX upon its launch was set to unity (1); that is, 100 percentage points. Starting from this baseline, the Index reached 117.6893 points at the end of last year.

Looking downstream, the outlook for 2020 is humdrum compared to the slant over the past year. The main damper lies in the prospect of a recession in the U.S. by 2021. Given the frailty of the economy, the stock market is slated to flail around a lot more than press ahead. In that case, the bourse will at best chalk up a modest return over the year to come.

In this tepid environment, it seems prudent to seek stable growth rather than zippy gains going forward. For this reason, the revised roster for MGX takes a somewhat conservative approach much like the tack taken in 2019. To sum up, the goal for the coming year centers on sturdy growth with ample stability rather than lusty vigor with stellar potential.


NOTE:  The report is a slide presentation under the title of “MintKit Growth Index – Update 2020”. The file is available in PDF form at SlideShare.

 

*       *       *