Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Forecasting Crashes of the Stock Market

Impact of Cycles versus Bubbles
at the
Dawn of the 21st Century
The stock market can crash whether or not a bubble exists. A showcase was the smashup of 2011 which popped up in tune with the long-range pattern of bombshells but otherwise without any good reason.

The pointless breakdown had one positive outcome. Given the confirmation of the running sequence of crackups, the schedule of flaps appeared to be on track in spite of the partial derailing linked to financial crisis of 2008.

For the wordly investor, the main event of 2011 was the blowup of the stock market in the U.S. and elsewhere, along with the bedlam in kindred fields such as commodities and currencies. As is often the case, the mayhem caused by the participants in the arena – be they part-time amateurs or full-time professionals – was for the most part a premature and avoidable ordeal for the entire community.

The teardown of the markets was prompted by the specter of a full-blown recession in the global economy within half a year or so. One reason for the jitters stemmed from the fitful progress of the industrial nations such as the United States, Britain and Japan. Another factor lay in the brouhaha over the debt crisis in Europe, along with widespread fears of a breakup of the euro along with the collapse of the regional economy.

For a number of years, the politicians in the developed world had been going out of their way to prop up the distortions in the marketplace that arose during the run-up to the financial crisis of 2008. Instead of prolonging the malady, the politicos ought to have left the economy alone to heal itself. Better yet, public policy could have helped to undo the damage done throughout the entire meshwork of production and distribution. Thanks to the counterproductive moves of the pols, however, the economy was doomed to struggle and flail for many years to come.

On a positive note, the crash of the stock market in 2011 showed up in sync with the long-running schedule of meltdowns. For this reason, the sequence of blowups appeared to be on track despite the partial derailing linked to financial crisis of 2008. As a consequence, the next crackup of the bourse could well occur around 2017 in line with the ongoing chain of flaps in the modern era.


Note: This report is a revised and extended version of an article published last year titled Forecasting the Next Crash of the Stock Market. The new publication is available in a variety of formats ranging from HTML to PDF. A popular form lies in the EPUB standard favored by many devices including Apple products such as the iPad. A variant of EPUB is the MOBI version used by Amazon Kindle. Further details on the report are available by clicking the image to the right.
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