Global Recovery and Risk of Double-Dip Recession

The global economy continues to recover from the worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s. A prime indicator is the volume of world trade. The value of exports in emerging countries rose by 8.7% during the last 3 months of 2009, although the corresponding rate in developed nations was less than half that level.

A popular concern in the business press is the bugaboo of a second meltdown in the global economy. The pundits like to point out that the recovery over the past year was driven by the massive outlay of public expenditures. As the impact of the stimulus packages wears out, the economy could run out of steam in 2010.

Even so, the problems on the horizon are unlikely to lead to any serious injury to the entire population of investors, consumer and producers around the planet. Any flaps on the horizon should be minor compared to the ordeal we suffered through over the past year and a half.

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